{"id":3755,"date":"2022-10-15T11:50:08","date_gmt":"2022-10-15T03:50:08","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.softbeam.net\/hobby\/?p=3755"},"modified":"2022-10-15T11:50:08","modified_gmt":"2022-10-15T03:50:08","slug":"ignoble-talent-vs-luck","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/softbeam.net\/hobby\/?p=3755","title":{"rendered":"IgNoble: Talent vs Luck"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<div class=\"wp-block-file\"><a id=\"wp-block-file--media-c20769af-db02-4e04-86fa-48663968dc41\" href=\"http:\/\/www.softbeam.net\/hobby\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/IgNobel-talent-luck.pdf\">IgNobel &#8212; Talent verse luck: the role of randomness in success and failure<\/a><\/div>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.softbeam.net\/hobby\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/model-1024x777.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3757\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.softbeam.net\/hobby\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/talent-1024x563.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3761\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.softbeam.net\/hobby\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/distribution-1.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3764\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;In fact, from the micro point of view, following the dynamical rules of the TvL model, a talented individual has a greater a priori probability to reach a high level of success than a moderately gifted one, since she has a greater ability to grasp any opportunity will come. Of course, luck has to help her in yielding those opportunities. Therefore, from the point of view of a single individual, we should therefore conclude that, being impossible (by definition) to control the occurrence of lucky events, the best strategy to increase the probability of success (at any talent level) is to broaden the personal activity, the production of ideas, the communication with other people, seeking for diversity and mutual enrichment. In other words, to be an open-minded person, ready to be in contact with others, exposes to the highest probability of lucky events (to be exploited by means of the personal talent).<br>On the other hand, from the macro point of view of the entire society, the probability to find moderately gifted individuals at the top levels of success is greater than that of  finding there very talented ones, because moderately gifted people are much more numerous and, with the help of luck, have &#8211; globally &#8211; a statistical advantage to reach a great success, in spite of their lower individual a priori probability.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u663e\u7136\uff0c\u5929\u5206\u9ad8\u8981\u6bd4\u5929\u5206\u4f4e\u6574\u4f53\u4e0a\u6709\u4f18\u52bf\uff0c\u4f46\u5374\u53ea\u662f\u6210\u529f\u7684\u5fc5\u8981\u6761\u4ef6\uff0c\u80fd\u6293\u4f4f\u548c\u5229\u7528\u673a\u4f1a\uff0c\u673a\u4f1a\u504f\u7231\u6709\u51c6\u5907\u7684\u4eba\u3002\u4f46\u5929\u5206\u4e0d\u662f\u5145\u5206\u6761\u4ef6\uff0c\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u5e78\u8fd0\u8005\u5927\u591a\u4e0d\u662f\u5929\u5206\u5f88\u9ad8\u7684\u4eba\u3002\u53e4\u4eba\u8bf4\uff1a\u5929\u65f6\u5730\u5229\u4eba\u548c\uff0c\u5929\u65f6>\u5730\u5229>\u4eba\u548c\uff0c\u4eba\u7b97\u4e0d\u5982\u5929\u7b97\u554a\uff01\u5982\u679c\u628a\u8fd0\u6c14\u770b\u4f5c\u662f\u7f18\u8d77\uff0c\u90a3\u667a\u529b\u3001\u80fd\u529b\u3001\u51b3\u5fc3\u3001\u52e4\u594b\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6240\u8c13\u5929\u5206\u7684\u54c1\u8d28\uff0c\u53c8\u4f55\u5c1d\u4e0d\u53ef\u4ee5\u8ba4\u4e3a\u662f\u7f18\u8d77\u7684\u8fd0\u6c14\u3002\u6b63\u6240\u8c13\uff1a\u5929\u5730\u65e0\u79c1\uff0c\u635f\u6709\u4f59\u4ee5\u8865\u4e0d\u8db3\u5427\u3002\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u6211\u4e4b\u524d\u7684\u51e0\u7bc7\uff1a<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"http:\/\/www.softbeam.net\/scribble\/2013\/06\/11\/%e5%88%ab%e6%8a%8a%e5%a5%8b%e6%96%97%e5%a4%aa%e5%bd%93%e5%9b%9e%e4%ba%8b%e5%84%bf\/\" target=\"_blank\">\u522b\u628a\u594b\u6597\u592a\u5f53\u56de\u4e8b\u513f\uff082013\uff09<\/a> <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"http:\/\/www.softbeam.net\/scribble\/2020\/02\/27\/%e4%ba%94%e5%8d%81%e7%9f%a5%e5%a4%a9%e5%91%bd\/\" target=\"_blank\">\u4e94\u5341\u77e5\u5929\u547d\uff082020\uff09<\/a>  <a href=\"http:\/\/www.softbeam.net\/scribble\/wp-admin\/post.php?post=4311&amp;action=edit\">\u4eba\u751f\u7531\u547d\uff082022\uff09<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8220;In fact, from the micro point of view, following the dynamical rules of the TvL model, a talented individual has a greater a priori probability to reach a high level of success than a moderately gifted one, since she has a greater ability to grasp any opportunity will come. Of course, luck has to help &hellip; <a href=\"http:\/\/softbeam.net\/hobby\/?p=3755\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;IgNoble: Talent vs Luck&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3,4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3755","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-physical","category-social"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/softbeam.net\/hobby\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3755","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/softbeam.net\/hobby\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/softbeam.net\/hobby\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/softbeam.net\/hobby\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/softbeam.net\/hobby\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=3755"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/softbeam.net\/hobby\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3755\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/softbeam.net\/hobby\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=3755"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/softbeam.net\/hobby\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=3755"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/softbeam.net\/hobby\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=3755"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}