Hush-Hush Period

The British note to Germany was sent to Paris, Rome, Brussels, Tokyo, Washington, through the respective Ambassadors in London. An early reply to the draft was demanded from the first four; to Washington it was made clear that an answer was not expected, but would, nevertheless, be welcome. After the Allied replies have been received the British Government will endeavor to reconcile the comments by modifying, as far as is consistent with its policy, the final draft of the note, which will then be sent to the German Government.

Great secrecy has been preserved by the Allied Governments and Washington concerning the terms of the British note. It is possible to state only in general terms that the British thesis is based upon a strict interpretation of the Versailles Treaty. Passive resistance is the crux of the great difficulty; it is probable that Britain will advise Germany to renounce passive resistance in order to conciliate French policy, which is adamant in demanding cessation of German resistance to the Franco-Belgian occupation of the Ruhr before considering negotiation of any kind. The advocacy of an international committee to determine Germany's capacity to pay reparations is also a point in the note. Finally, control of Germany by the League of Nations (in which Germany would be represented) is suggested to replace the present Ruhr occupation.

During the past week it is certain that the British Government modified its original stand against the Ruhr occupation. This was chiefly on account of unshakable French policy. The tenor of the note takes into account French views and is accordingly " exceedingly circumspect." The change in the attitude of Premier Baldwin is purely diplomatic and will in no way affect the British decision to isolate France in Europe as an extreme measure. To some extent a desire to revivify the Entente Cordiale is responsible for this eleventh-hour shift.

Premier Poineare made a number of speeches on the occupation and the resultant international political morass, but he was at all times exceedingly guarded. Unbiased opinion considers that the French are economically wrong and politically right. It seems likely that the French Government will be willing to modify its policy on this basis.

The political situation in Germany continues to be fraught with peril. A putsch, not dissimilar from the Kapp Putsch of 1920, is an imminent possibility. The object of such a movement would be primarily to prevent the country falling into the hands of Communists, who have been engineering a plot to seize the Government for some time. If the coup d'etat were successful, a Fascist dictatorship would be established, followed, no doubt, by the reestablishment of the Monarchy.