Cotton Report

Seldom has such a complete reversal been indicated as in the U. S. cotton report for July 16, as compared with that for June 25. The earlier estimate of the crop had indicated a "condition" of 75.9, and a total crop of 14,339,000 bales. Suddenly the statistics veered around, and the later report indicated condition at only 70.4 and a total crop of only 13,588,000 bales--a smaller output than the actual 1924 crop of 13,627,836 bales. The discrepancy between the two estimates for the current crop amounts to 751,000 bales.

The incident created many conjectures. Some held that the June 25 report of a large crop had depressed cotton prices, enraged planters, stirred up politicians and frightened the Government employes making it; and that the latter were in consequence trying to right the matter by making an underestimate of the crop to raise cotton prices and allay political wrath. This is not the first time that political manipulation of the Washington crop estimates has been suspected and charged. However, the position of cotton prophet is a difficult one at best, and the crop itself is subject to sudden changes of condition in its present stage of growth.

A striking feature in the July 16 report was the poor condition indicated for the Texas crop; the condition figure for this leading cotton state sank from 64 in the earlier report to only 56 in the later one, due to the continuance of drought in the Southwest. Also, the yield per acre in pounds for Texas fell between the reports from 112 to 101.

Optimists for a big 1925 cotton crop, however, still point out that acreage planted this year is much greater than last year, and that in 1924 the mid-July estimate proved more than 1,500,000 bales less than the cotton crop actually harvested last fall.