Frenzied Cotton

The estimates as to the probable size of the 1925 cotton crop made by the Government have alternately provided anxiety and entertainment to the cotton trade all this year. Issued every fortnight, they have alternated violently up and down, and have led to similar fluctuations in cotton futures on the exchanges.

The estimate as of Oct. 1 provided the biggest sensation of the year. Previously the Government "experts" had not predicted a cotton crop of as much as 14,000,000 bales. The estimate as of Sept. 16, in fact, was 13,931,000 bales, and on Sept. 1, 13,740,000 bales. Suddenly, as of Oct. 1, the estimate shot up by 828,000 bales and reached 14,759,000. After being below privately made estimates of the cotton crop, the Government estimate is now higher than the largest important private estimate.

The excuse given by the Government estimators for the sudden recent jump in their cotton figures, is "the September rains, which have sensationally improved prospects in regions of the cotton belt harassed by drought, especially in Texas." Indeed, private estimates of the coming crop have experienced similar (though lesser) increases for the same reason. But on the announcement of the last Government estimate, cotton prices on the New York Cotton Exchange broke $8 a bale to the lowest figures this year, and cotton traders are just now inclined to speak of Government estimators and statisticians in terms completely uncomplimentary.