Hoover Report

A report signed by Herbert Hoover, Secretary of Commerce (written late in the summer after the appointment of Secretary Whiting, his successor) was published last week. Last commercial survey by the man who made the Commerce Department famous, it covered fiscaf 1928, which ended June 30, just after Mr. Hoover was nominated and before his resignation was accepted. It sounded very familiar, being largely a replica of its author's campaign speech. "Fiscal 1928," said Mr. Hoover, "had continued the high economic activity which has become characteristic of American industry." He cited the Mississippi flood, the cotton depression, and a temporary abeyance of motor-making (Ford's style change), as the causes of a recession of indices last fall which was recovered last spring. He said: "Unemployment was relatively unimportant . . . the rate of real wages and the standard of living of the masses of the people remained higher than anywhere else in the world.*

The dollar-volume of U.S. exports declined 91 millions in 1928 from the post-War peak of 4,968 millions reached in 1927. But this was due to lower prices. Quantitatively exports increased slightly. The dollar-volume would have risen but for the poor cotton crop.

On the import side, there were slight declines in the dollar-volume of foodstuffs, raw materials and semi-manufactures, but an increase in manufactures. The manufactures item indicated increased competition from abroad and illustrated that price-reductions were also the cause of shrinkage in dollar-volume of imports. Quantitatively, 1928 imports increased nearly 3% over 1927 and the total was record-breaking.

The "Balance-of-Trade"--ratio of exports over imports--remained favorable. The export margin amounted, in merchandise, to some $731,000,000--about the same as in the last seven years. Gold exports, also, were heavy in 1928, in contrast to the heavy influx of gold in 1927. This indicated a general fortifying of the buying power of U.S. customers.

* See footnote to Jardine Report.