The Automotive Year

Homes, tractors and typewriters are sold in the belief that they will not soon change owners. Automobile salesmen, however, have the fervent hope that after a year or so the buyer will return for a newer, shinier, faster and perhaps more expensive model of the same make. Charles Franklin Kettering, President of General Motors Research Corp., lately wrote: ". . . Our chief job in research is to keep the customer reasonably dissatisfied with what he has."

Last week the automobile industry faced 1930 with the opening of the New York Automobile Show. Although 1929 was a record smasher with 5,700,000 cars made (estimate by Standard Statistics), it was, as all the world now knows, a turbulent and unhappy one for the manufacturers. Customer dissatisfaction during 1929 failed to keep pace with offerings. To the trials of overproduction have now been added the hazards of a possible business recession.

For these reasons the motor makers awaited the New York show with more than usual excitement. Grimly they watched the public's reception of their new offerings, knowing well that without popular fancy 1930 may be a disastrous year for any company.

Show. In the Grand Central Palace salesmen hovered around the glistening models, representing 44 different U. S. makes, and two foreign cars. In addition to passenger cars, two taxis were displayed. Also there were exhibits of accessories and shop equipment. The U. S. makes, with approximate minimum price of cheapest models,*were:

Under $1,000

Auburn ($995) Hupmobile ($995)

Chevrolet ($525) Nash ($915)

Chrysler ($985) Oldsmobile ($875)

De Soto ($845) Peerless ($995)

Dodge ($925) Plymouth ($665)

Durant ($635) Pontiac ($745)

Elcar ($995) Roosevelt ($995)

Erskine ($860) Studebaker ($995)

Essex ($725) Whippet ($525) Graham ($855)

Between $1,000 and $2,000

Blackhawk ($1,995) Oakland ($1,145)

Buick ($1,225) Reo ($1,375)

Gardner ($1,195) Viking ($1,695)

Hudson ($1,095) Willys-Knight

Jordan ($1,795) ($1,045)

Kissel ($1,595) Windsor (Moon)

Marmon ($1,465) ($1,045)

Over $2,000

Cadillac ($3,195) Packard ($2,375) Cord ($3,095) Pierce-Arrow Cunningham ($7,500) ($2,875) DuPont ($3,000 delivered ) Ruxton ($4,500 delivered) Franklin ($2,160) Stearns-Knight La Salle ($2,335) ($5,000) Lincoln ($4,200) Stutz ($2,995)

Cadillac. Bidding strongly for logo's luxury trade was a new model by Cadillac. Autophiles who once gloated over Packard's mighty "Twin Six" gathered around the enclosure which contained the new Cadillac engine, regally mounted. Composed of two blocks of eight cylinders (each with carburetor) set at an angle of 45DEG instead of the usual 90DEG for a V-type, the engine will develop from 165 to 185 h. p., send the V16 gliding along with electric smoothness. Ready in April, the V16 will sell from $5,500 up.

To make such a radical engine is a problem calling for long research and experiment. Lawrence P. Fisher, of the Seven Fishers, is generally acknowledged to be the originator of the V16. He is supposed to have started work on it when he became Cadillac's president in 1925. An art collector, Builder Fisher is also a mechanic whose experience dates back to anvil days. He was doubtless able to give many a shrewd bit of advice to the engineers of the General Motors Research Corp.

Innovations. Other than Cadillac's 16 cylinders, there were no "sensations" at the show. The most noticeable improvements were in decorative features and minor refinements (see p. 46). Gardner announced a front-wheel drive, joining Cord and Ruxton which announced this change last summer. Graham-Paige announced it would henceforth be just Graham. Four-speed forward transmissions, long discarded (though revived in the Dodge truck in 1928 by Graham Brothers) showed continued resuscitation by being included in seven sixes and seven eights. The tendency away from fours to sixes and away from sixes to eights was continued, as was that toward lower and longer bodies.

Aviation. Although General Motors is heavily interested in aviation (Fokker, Bendix), and Cord, Packard and Continental motors do some airplane engine business, and although some Mid-West dealers handle both airplanes and cars, these were not the reasons for having an "aviation day" at the show. It was done to please the many manufacturers who advertise some "aviation feature" in their cars. The greatest of these is Franklin with its air-cooled motor. Last fortnight a Franklin engine was taken out of a stock model, placed in an airplane, successfully used in a short flight, furnishing a good talking point for Franklin salesmen.

Anti-Show. Sponsor of the New York show is the National Automobile Chamber of Commerce, to which practically all passenger car and truck makers belong, paying dues according to their output. A few days before this year's show, John W. Scovill, Chrysler business analyst, said that changing models cause uneven output, that the New York show (begun in 1900) should be abolished. Another one of his reasons: New York buys fewer cars per person than any other large U. S. city.

Stutz. In 1920 Speculator Allan Ryan returned from Europe, found a large short interest in the stock of Stutz Motors, which he controlled. Quickly he ran the price above $700 a share and was forced to withdraw from the stock exchange. Last week, Stutz Motors creditors filed a bankruptcy petition with claims totaling only $2,100. The action, however, was dismissed by the federal court several days later. The 1920 Stutz car was a flashy "chorus girl trade" type, bearing the touches of famed Racer Harry Stutz. Now the Stutz and Black Hawk are more conservative, advertising many safety features. Rumors were current that a prominent manufacturer would buy the company. Stutz salesmen at the show convinced prospective buyers that the car would continue, regardless of the receivership, and not become an odd-lot job like the late Wills-St. Clair.

Ford. One of the most upsetting factors in the 1929 automobile situation was the comeback of Henry Ford, begun late in 1928. For the year his output reached two million. In the last few months of 1929 Ford was running at a rate high enough to account for 40% of all U. S. production.

Because Mr. Ford has never joined the National Automobile Chamber of Commerce (although Lincoln retains its pre-Ford membership), his cars are never entered in the show but are displayed in his Broadway salesrooms at the same time. The 1930 Ford was eagerly awaited, contained chassis and body improvements but no mechanical changes.

Besides a deeper and narrower radiator, smaller wheels, longer fenders, the most significant new Ford feature was "Rustless Steel" upon all exposed shining parts.* Another car to adopt a similar metal is Pierce-Arrow, using it on all nuts and bolts and many driving parts. Because not many steel companies possess Rustless Steel patents and equipment, the new demand caused great activity among those few. Central Alloy, for example, which together with Ludlum and Crucible shares the Krupp Stainless Steel patents, reported last week that this division was 14 weeks behind schedule.

Just as eagerly awaited as the new Ford models were details of the Ford program for 1930. Cynics who had said that his wage-raise (TIME, Dec. 2) was meaningless because of the number of men laid off were less sure when they learned that the payroll, reduced during retooling for the new model, was increased at the rate of 600 to 700 men a day as soon as production began again. Then last week the Ford Co. announced that its 1930 expenditures will exceed $30,000,000 making it obvious that the Ford product during this year will be more than ever a serious problem to its competitors.

Profits. In 1929 profits began well for motor makers but dwindled after the peak of production was passed in April. General Motors' dividend payments for the year came to $166,000,000 as against $174,000,000 in 1928. Continental Motors, supplying engines for Durant, Jordan, Reo and Windsor (Moon), last fortnight passed its dividend. Accessory and body companies, reporting tremendous profits for the first few months, are expected to show deficits in the last quarter. In Hayes Body the earnings drop was so precipitate that last fortnight the directors voted back a stock dividend they had declared although it had already sold "ex." Practically every automobile stock ended the year with a large decline.

Prophets. In 1928 Walter P. Chrysler conservatively predicted that 1929 production would be 4,750,000, exports 1,000,000 (TIME, Jan. 7, 1929). For 1930 Mr. Chrysler named no figures, spoke about a return to "normal conditions" and "satisfactory" production. General Motors' Alfred Pritchard Sloane Jr. said that he saw eventual stabilization at 5,500,000 cars a year, was careful to stress the fact that his company has very diversified manufacturing interests. Standard Statistics in a five-year forecast of the industry last week predicted a future annual production of 5,200,000 cars, 500,000 less than last year, then said the future of the automobile industry "depends upon the disposition of the American automobile users, in the future as through the past, to continue to be the most 'wasteful' class of human beings that has ever inhabited this planet." C. W. Nash of the Nash Motor Co. said the industry "is on the eve of a general reorganization." In 1916, he pointed out, there were no manufacturers at the show, this year only 34. During 1930 he expects further weeding out of weak firms.

Giant. Also said Standard Statistics: "At the wheel of the automobile rides America's industrial destiny." In the U. S. are 320,000 filling stations, 51,200 public garages, 56,300 car and truck dealers. The industry uses 85% of the rubber, 80% of the gasoline, 75% of the plate glass, 18% of the steel, 25% of the lead produced in the land. In the U. S. are registered 26 million motor vehicles with a wholesale value of $3,500,000,000. Obvious are the reasons why U. S. businessmen, after examining the first show reports and reading the words of prophets, eagerly await the first 1930 production figures.

*F.o.b. prices as listed by the American Automobile, January, 1930.

*The Ford announcement called it "Rustless Steel" as a compromise between Rustless Iron and Stainless Steel, two similar patented products which Ford buys and to neither of which he will give exclusive publicity until he settles on one or the other at the most advantageous price.

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