What to Expect

"We not only got a new deal and a new dealer but a practically new deck of cards. It is, however, the same game. The players change but the game not at all."

So wrote shrewd, able Frank Richardson Kent last week in the Baltimore Sun on the election of Franklin Delano Roosevelt. With Pundit Kent most wiseacres were ready to agree that, despite the record-breaking Democratic vote and wishful talk of "united non-partisan effort" the business of Government-by-politics would go on about as usual in the U. S. for the next four years. In his campaign President-elect Roosevelt exhibited himself as a smart politician and no smart politician who wants to stay in power suddenly and violently revolutionizes the game's rules on his first deal.

The Thirty-Second President emerged from the campaign fog as a vigorous well-intentioned gentleman of good birth and breeding who had large hopes for improving his country by ordinary political processes. If he lacked crusading convictions, he was at least free from his predecessor's stubborn pride of opinion. One week after his election he seemed destined to give the U. S. the kind of administration it thought it wanted rather than the kind he thought it ought to have. No section had a right to dictate to him. to demand favors. The South? He could have won easily without it. The West? It was not a necessary ingredient of his victory. The Republican Progressives? Without them his sweep would have been the same. Such far-flung support would give him. if he chose to take it. extraordinary independence of action. He had a Congress overwhelmingly friendly in which to work his will. He started with a clean record, free from "sorehead" enemies in his own party or organized opposition from the Republicans. The country seemed ready and waiting for him to lead. Never before were the possibilities better for a Democratic Administration to get things done. The result seemed to depend upon the brand of statesmanship to be furnished by the new President. From him and his party what could the country expect?

Governor Roosevelt is by no means the whole Democratic party "nor. once in the White House, will he 'be the whole U. S. Government. In him are concentrated only in the loosest sense the mixed mass of ideas, opinions, notions, policies, theories and conceptions which will dominate the country for four years. In Congress. Democrat battles Democrat as to what is good party doctrine. The Democratic Press of William Randolph Hearst is rarely in tune with that of Adolph, Ochs, Baruch, Young, Baker & Co. hold ideas opposite from those of Dill, Long, Wheeler, McAdoo & Co.--yet all are Democrats. An Irish Catholic in Boston, a Russian Jew in Chicago and a white Protestant in Atlanta think on different tangents--yet all are Democrats.

The most authoritative declaration of Democratic principles is the party platform adopted in the Chicago convention. Governor Roosevelt and Al Smith have loudly assured the country that this year the platform means something, may be accepted as gospel. What it means, however, has been differently interpreted by different speakers and commentators. Though calculations as to what the President-elect and his party will do are difficult and risky, the general legislative prospect is roughly as follows:

Finances will be the new administration's first concern. Mr. Roosevelt will make an honest effort to balance the still unbalanced budget. A 25% reduction in Government expenses--about $1,000,000,000 is definitely promised but no time limit is set. Thus if 6% is cut from each successive annual budget the Democratic President will be able to claim at the end of his term a fulfillment of this platform pledge. Despite the National Economy League's clamor. President Roosevelt will not lead a movement against the $400,000,000 Allowance to veterans for miscellaneous illnesses which have no connection with the War. A general reorganization of Government departments is possible but improbable. As in the past, savings will take the form of snippings here, snippings there, not a bold frontal attack on Governmental spending. Therefore to balance the budget.

Taxes will have to be upped more. The party stands for "revenue raised by a system of taxation levied on the principle of ability to pay"--which means nothing. As Governor. Mr. Roosevelt did not hesitate to double New York State's income tax to_raise relief funds. The only new tax to which he is definitely committed is one on beer. Publisher Hearst is Democracy's prime agitator for a General Sales Tax but his own party tore that proposal to bits in the last session. Most Democrats want to see the well-to-do pay higher taxes, but are slowly coming to realize that sky-high rates on luxuries and big incomes fail to produce proportionate revenue in hard times and therefore defeat their own end. Thus the General Sales Tax may become the only practical means of balancing the budget.

Currency will be kept on the gold standard. The Bonus, with payment in fiat money, will not get by. In general the financial policy of the Democrats will be not to inflate currency but to scale down debts by indirect means.

Repeal of the 18th Amendment may well cause a special session of the new Congress next spring. Though the party is pledged to Repeal, it will take every ounce of the new President's leadership to get_ such a resolution through the slow-shifting Senate. Meanwhile beer as a source of revenue looked like a certainty if not in the 72nd "lame duck" session then in the 73rd's first.

The Tariff will be tinkered. Industrial rates will be cut; agricultural rates will stand. The State Department will try its hand at negotiating a few reciprocal agreements whereby, for instance, the U. S. could ship more automobiles to France in return for taking more French soap and perfumes.

Agricultural Relief will probably take the form of the domestic allotment plan--a straight subsidy to the farm producer in return for a cut in acreage.

Jobless Relief will be nothing more sensational than a liberal expansion of the present system of R. F. C. loans to States to relieve local distress. The $300,000,000 fund will probably be doubled and red tape cut so needy States can get more money quicker. "There will be no direct Federal "dole." A moderate public building program, without "pork." will be continued. Across the land will soon spring up a coordinated system of Federal employment agencies.

Banks will have their security affiliates cut away from them. The impractical notion of restricting the use of Federal Reserve credit for speculation will be toyed with. Advertisement of stocks and bonds sold in interstate commerce will carry sworn data as to promoters' bonuses, commissions, invested principal and interest of sellers. Stock exchanges will not suffer. (Only really important change in the banking system is state-wide branch banking which may be put through the "lame duck" session.)

Power legislation will result in Government operation of Muscle Shoals. Utility holding companies will be sharply reined in.

Railroads will still have the R. F. C. behind them but in return will have to whittle down top-heavy capital.

The Philippines will be given qualified independence.

Soviet Russia, if not actually recognized, will be accorded a better commercial status for U. S. trade.

President-elect Roosevelt's three major pledges were: 1) Repeal; 2) 25% Economy; 3) "Happy Days Shall Come Again." Declared Pundit Kent: "That's all he has promised. Just those three little things. Practically nothing else. If he redeems one of them he will have accomplished a lot. If he redeems two of them, it will be perfectly grand. If he redeems all three of them he should be President for life."

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