Momentous Statistic

Estimated U. S. winter wheat crop for the current year: 337,485,000 bushels.

Such was the statistic which rolled last week from the glib mimeographs of the U. S. Crop Reporting Board. To men wise in the ways of wheat, the figure signified the probability of:

1) A winter wheat crop smaller than any since 1904, 40% smaller than the average of 1921-30.

2) A total U. S. wheat crop (allowing for 21,000,000 acres of newly planted spring wheat having the average yield of 12.75 bushels) of 605,000,000 bu. compared to 726,000,000 last year, to 900,000,000 in 1931, to 1,000,000,000 in 1915.

3) A total U. S. wheat crop which (allowing for a normal consumption of five bushels per capita) will fall about 45,000,000 bu. short of the U. S. annual consumption. But the incredible spectacle of the U. S. importing wheat was not in prospect because of

4) A huge U. S. wheat carry over from previous crops, amounting to well over 300,000,000 bu., soon likely to be considerably reduced.

Profitable news was this to all holders of wheat. Future prices jumped to 75-c- a bushel in the Chicago pit.

Last autumn the mortgage-burdened farmer plowed, harrowed and seeded 40,000,000 acres of good wheat land. The seed sprouted. The farmer returned to pass long winter evenings by his radio, leaving the care of his crop to the climate that God should provide. But snow did not come to protect the seedlings from the cold and or rain did not fall to give them moisture when they needed it in spring. When the farmer went forth in the early May sunshine, instead of finding his flat fields covered with a lush green growth of young grain, he found the soil all but bare on 13,000,000 of his 40,000,000 acres. Last week's report showed that 32.2% of last fall's plantings had been abandoned, an all-time record. Kansas, which harvested 240,000,000 bu. in 1931, is expected to produce only 58,000,000 bu. this year. Whether or not the farmer profits much from dearer grain and smaller crops the consumer will pay: bread will cost 1-c-more a loaf.*

Most significant fact about the prospect of an unusually small wheat crop is that in the past short crops--either at home or abroad--and resulting higher prices have time & again betokened the end of depressions.

The same day that the Crop Reporting Board tossed its statistic to the public the big four in world wheat (U. S., Canada, Argentina, Australia) met by proxy under the tent of the League of Nations at Geneva. Theirs was not the task of interpreting past short crops (which have been notably lacking) but of trying to bring about more short crops in the future. Two years ago they met on a similar mission in London, went home empty handed because the U. S. declared it could do nothing about restricting production.

Last week Henry Morgenthau Sr., 77, President Wilson's Ambassador to Turkey and father of President Roosevelt's Farm Board chairman, instead of quietly celebrating his golden wedding anniversary at home, spent it instead as head of the U. S. wheat delegation telling the other nations that the U. S. had changed its mind, was emphatically in favor of limiting wheat production. With him Mr. Morgenthau had an expert of the Federal Farm Board, Georg C. Haas to give technical advice. Third member of the U. S. delegation was Frederick E. Murphy, Republican publisher of the Minneapolis Tribune. Mr. Murphy's fame rests principally on the fact that in 1921 he proposed a "ten-year plan" to the farmers of the Northwest, a plan for diversification of crops, for growing not wheat alone but other grains, not grain alone but chickens and dairy cattle, not cows alone but pure-bred dairy cattle. It has been claimed that Publisher Murphy's program is responsible for the fact that in 1931 when the farm income of the U. S. was 1.03% under the 1911 level, the farm income of Minnesota was 61% above that level.

One morning two weeks ago Mr. Murphy dropped in to discuss wheat problems with President Roosevelt. The talk led to the world wheat conference and about11 a. m. Mr. Roosevelt suggested that Mr. Murphy go as a delegate. At midnight he sailed from Brooklyn accompanying Mr. Morgenthau on the S. S. Bremen.

Last week the U. S. delegates were trying to agree with delegates of Canada, Argentina, Australia on some plan of restricting wheat acreage, which they could then discuss with other delegates from Russia and the Danubian countries, and finally take ready-made to the London Economic Conference in June.

*According to Mr. Wallace. It remains to be .seen whether the bakers will not add several cents (in some places they have already added 1c a loaf). Actually the cost of wheat has very little to do with the cost of making bread except as a pretext for raising prices. In France where wheat until recently was artificially maintained at a price of about $1.70 a bushel, a pound-loaf of bread sold for 4 1/2c.

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