State of Trade

Last week the National Industrial Conference Board estimated that there were 8,610,000 unemployed workers in the U. S. at the end of February. During the previous eleven months 4,592,000 had found jobs--34.8% of the all-time high figure of 13,200,000 in March 1933. Scrupulous was the Conference Board to count as unemployed 4,000,000 CWA workers, 300,000 Government woodsmen.*

Such figures as these last week made John Businessman sit up and pinch himself to make sure that the amazing upswing in trade since last November was really true. Cornerstone of the improvement, said Dun & Bradstreet, was "the strongest desire to buy that the public has displayed since Wartime days." Despite bad weather in certain sections, the final surge of Easter buying boosted retail sales to the highest level in three years and 70% above last year. Sears, Roebuck reported March sales up 57% from 1933. Spectacular reports were expected from the chainstores.

"A last minute rush of almost unprecedented proportions took place in the wholesale merchandise markets," said the austere New York Times. Wholesale business in the New York Federal Reserve District ran 45% ahead of the previous year during February. Widest gains were made in the jewelry trade.

For the 47th consecutive week power production stood above the figure for the same week of last year, showing an unseasonal gain of 17%. For the seventh consecutive week carloading ran ahead not only of 1933 but also of 1932. Output of bituminous coal, prime source of U. S. power, exceeded the levels of the winter of 1929-30 for the first time. Lumber production was at the highest volume since last August. Steel operations, now 47% of capacity, were expected to approach 55% in April. The burlap trade predicted the first active spring since 1928. It was estimated that the pick-up in automobile production had bettered the status of 10,000,000 workers in 20 major industries.

Foreign trade of $295,000,000 in February was the best for that month in three years. February electric refrigerator sales set an all-time record for the month with 82,000 units against a previous high of 53,000 in 1931. February meat sales were 5% above January and 44% above February 1933. Railroad earnings were 191% above February 1933. Commodity prices last week continued weak. Exceptions: eggs, lemons, peanuts and cloverseed.

Percentage gains over March 1933 were, of course, exaggerated by the abnormally low state of trade during the banking moratorium. Nevertheless, for the first time since the New Deal John Businessman last week found his own affairs more engrossing than the Government's. Chairman Myron Taylor of U. S. Steel, having just averted trouble in his own house (see p. 17), told his stockholders that "in contrast with the uncertainties of a year ago, we have every reason to believe we have passed through the most difficult period of our adversities and we now face the future with confidence and assurance." Same day General Motors' Alfred Pritchard Sloan Jr., who habitually speaks with less reserve than Mr. Taylor, wrote his stockholders: "The rate of improvement may be accelerated or retarded by injecting into the picture abnormal influences, but the general trend will not be affected for the reason that an industrial recovery, like an industrial depression, is, in a practical sense of the word, an irresistible force."

*After a special survey the Milbank Memorial Fund announced last week that the birth rate in families living on relief was 53% higher than in self-supporting families.

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