"Moving Day"

Two major pedestals for any general U. S. prosperity are a substantial income for U. S. farmers and a substantial tide of new housing construction. At present, as everybody knows, the pocketbooks of U. S. farmers are bulging after seven lean years, but a housing boom long anticipated has yet to materialize. There are obvious reasons why, as in three previous housing booms (1871-73, 1905-06, 1923-28), residential building does not start until rents rise proportionately above construction costs. In previous housing cycles costs always rose earlier than rents but the boom waited until rents rose sharply enough to catch up or until costs fell back. Building costs in 1937 are high and the militant policy of Labor will tend to keep them up. Rents meanwhile are considerably lower. How fast they are rising is therefore a prime gauge of the imminence of a great economic event. This week the question is also of vital interest to millions of tenants, for in the two biggest cities of the U. S., New York and Chicago, October first is "moving day."*

In July the National Association of Real Estate Boards announced that a survey had shown office rentals up in 43% of U. S. cities, rents for business space up in 78%, apartment rents up in 87% and home rents up in 90%. The size of rent increase the Association found about 10% over 1936 for apartments, as much as 15% in some cities for houses. But apartment rates stood at about 65% of 1926, far lower than single-family homes at 97%. According to the U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, rents in the two years ending last June were up 3.3% in Kansas City, 2.4% in Mobile, 8.7% in Seattle, 10.4% in Indianapolis, 2.5% in Philadelphia, 11.7% in Cleveland, 15.5% in Portland, Ore., 6.9% in Atlanta, 9.6% in Chicago. Asked to compute the rise last week, renting agencies in most of these cities estimated higher figures. In New York, those who took leases six weeks or more ago, paid about 10% more than before. Those who waited until last week's moving day often found they could renew at last year's price because of the deflationary sentiment brought on by the stock market's tumble.

* Other "Moving Days": Atlanta, Sept. 1; Seattle, Saturday before Labor Day; St. Louis, no preferred day, but September is best month; Philadelphia, last Monday in September. Los Angeles and San Francisco have no regular moving days.

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