G. O. P. Trend
Last week even political experts woke up to a fact as plain as the nose on Uncle Sam's face: that the U. S. was going Republican as fast as it decently could. Even more joyful to eye-rubbing GOPsters was another dawning fact: that the magic name of Franklin Roosevelt had lost a lot of its abracadoomph.
Last week about 2,500,000 typical U. S. citizens went to the polls, and a little more than half of them voted for somebody else, not Mr. Roosevelt. This was over-the-hills-and-far-away from 1936.
Illinois. In the Democratic primary last week Mr. Roosevelt's projected total was 1,159,040 votes; John Nance Garner, 189,936. In the Republican primary, Thomas E. Dewey (unopposed): 970,440.
As in New Hampshire and Wisconsin, the votes for Garner were out-&-out protests against Term III. By simple addition, Illinois was at least a 50-50 break between the President and a Republican. But under a primary-law technicality, an estimated 150,000 G.O.P. voters were unable to vote in Cook County (Chicago) last week: having changed registrations a year ago to Democratic, in order to fight the election of Mayor Ed Kelly, they may not vote in Republican primaries until 1941. Moreover, Tom Dewey's whopping total was but 90% of the Republican vote--at least 10% of the GOPsters refused to endorse him. Illinoisans looked at each other and remembered that in 1936 Franklin Roosevelt had a 712,606-vote majority over Republican Alf Landon.
The trend looked even more significant when these factors were added: the entire strength of the Kelly-Nash-Horner machine, upstate & down, was geared to roll up an overwhelming total for the President. The goal was 16-to-1, with Mr. Garner on the short end. Ten-to-one was taken for granted; mousy pollsters who timidly forecast 8-to-1 were fleered at.
The result: 6-to-1. Secretary of Agriculture Henry Wallace let drop some quiet advice to county AAA agents in the farm areas; everyone understood perfectly. But when the votes were in, Tom Dewey had outrun the President about 4-to-3 throughout rural Illinois.
Nebraska. Clear also was the G.O.P. swing in Nebraska: in the Democratic primary Roosevelt (unopposed) got 109,386 votes with some rural returns still untabulated. Republican: Dewey, 99,905; Vandenberg. 72,108. Four years ago the President carried Nebraska by 100,000 majority; in 1932 by 160,000.
New Dealers drew some comfort from the defeat of pompous, unpopular anti-New Deal Senator Edward Burke by popular Governor Roy L. Cochran in the Democratic primary. Burke had antagonized the farmers by voting against parity payments; Labor, by attacking NLRB; Czechs and Poles, by lauding Hitler; Germans, by voting for repeal of the arms embargo. The Republicans had turned down a New Dealer within their own ranks, Arthur J. Weaver, in favor of Grainman Hugh Butler of Omaha, who probably won because he spent enough money to get a professional organization. The Republicans confidently expected to beat Governor Cochran with Grainman Butler.
For the first time since 1930, the G.O.P. primary vote was larger than the Democratic. And Nebraska, unlike Wisconsin, is a typical Midwest State.
Conclusions. Tom Dewey's 58 Illinois delegates are "advised" and 14 Nebraska delegates are "morally" pledged to him. But many of the delegates chosen last week actually have no use for Mr. Dewey, no faith in his prospects, may desert him on little provocation, heedless of his popularity with the public.
Everyone still agreed that Franklin Roosevelt can have the Democratic nomination on the first ballot, if he wants it. (Cracked Janizary Tom Corcoran last week: "The Democratic convention was held in Copenhagen.") And the President, unless he is way off his 1936 form, is still the greatest campaigner in modern U. S. history. But, putting one consideration with another, observers totted up this answer: 1) even in 1936 form Mr. Roosevelt may have nip-&-tuck going this year, 2) no other Democrat in sight is likely to beat the trend.
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