Where and When

This week the Italian press informed the French people that Italy was going to fight them--but not before Tuesday. How well Mussolini's men and machines would operate and in what areas the struggle would develop had now ceased to be a matter of speculation to the sorely beset Allies, become a desperate map problem for their tacticians.

To the Allies, whatever dynamite Mussolini had, seemed to endanger, not so much continental France, as their Mediterranean interests. They feared that Malta and Corsica would be the first places snapped at by the "aspiring" Duce. Even if Spanish Dictator Franco would not let him use the Balearic Islands for air bases, Mussolini could cripple France's supply lines to North Africa.

It seemed doubtful that Mussolini would tackle Gibraltar at once. Hitler, he hoped, would take that for him in London. Nor was a frontal attack on the Suez Canal expected. Much though. Mussolini wants that gateway to his Ethiopian province, Allied forces in the Near East would probably be too strong for him, at first. His reported deal with Greek Premier Metaxas (see p. 30) seemed to indicate that the Italian campaign in the Balkans would be diplomatic rather than military.

After France's lines to Africa, prime Italian objectives would be Tunisia and Egypt. But one at a time, and perhaps Egypt first, since capture of Alexandria from the rear by mechanized columns (like Hitler's capture of the Channel ports) would boot more and probably be easier than cutting into Tunisia and French Morocco.

As he stood on the war's brink this week, the war machine with which Mussolini threatened the Allies added up, at least on paper, formidably. He had:

Air Army. Eighty bomber squadrons (ten ships each), light and heavy, including 34 seaplane squadrons; 960 fighters; 400 reconnaissance--total 2,160 planes, plus 1,800 reserves. Replacement capacity: 500 per month. Pilots: 8,000. Other ranks: 54,000. The Italian Air Force was not the monster it seemed in Spain.

Navy. At least no submarines (25 more building), 62 motor torpedo boats (nine more building), 126 other torpedo boats and destroyers, 21 cruisers, most of them lightly armored (twelve torpedo cruisers building), two ultramodern dreadnoughts (two more building), four old but rebuilt battleships. This was, however, more of a striking force than a sticking force. Against the British and French Mediterranean Fleets it might have a hard time holding even its home waters.

Army. Two mechanized and two semi-mechanized divisions, 30 infantry divisions with cavalry units, seven divisions of mountain troops, 60,000 fortress troops, 20,000 highly organized anti-aircraft specialists--total, 620,000. Besides this regular Army, 500,000 Fascist militia, 330,000 trained reservists. Grand total: 1,450,000. These, too, were by arms, tradition and temperament strikers rather than stickers. With Adowa, Caporetto and Guadalajara in mind, it was not surprising that Il Duce had stalled so long before getting in what he is best fitted for--a swift jackal bite.

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