What do the Billions Mean?

By this week, when Franklin Roosevelt submitted the most gargantuan budget in history to the U.S. Congress, the nation had been subjected to a baffling barrage of billions-of-dollars-for-war. What did the billions really mean in terms of war production?

Most importantly they meant that though the U.S. will in fact produce far more for war in 1943 than in 1942, nevertheless the rate of production is beginning to level off. Last November the Treasury spent $6.1 billions for war, which is at an annual rate of $73 billions--very close to WPB's hoped-for goals for this year. This means that the rate of increase in new munitions orders is also bound to begin tapering off.

This year's production will involve much less preparation for the future, much more production for immediate use. Significantly, orders for the bellwether machine-tool industry are already running below shipments at the end of 1942--though the backlog is still huge. Last week the Wall Street Journal estimated that total new construction of plants and houses may fall off as much as 50% during 1943. Notable exceptions to the no-more-new-plant decision: synthetic rubber (already dangerously behind schedule) and aviation gasoline.

Important changes are taking place in the kinds of munitions ordered. There will be fewer tanks, ack-ack guns, ammunition; more planes, merchant ships and naval escort vessels. For example, the original 1943 tank program (75,000) has been cut about half, while the hope is to double aircraft and shipbuilding output. This shift in military strategy has caused a great many dislocations, some of them now surmounted. For instance:

>The Army announced last week that the Symington-Gould tank-armor plant in Rochester (N.Y.), on which construction was abruptly halted last November, was being completed for aircraft production. In Kansas City the Darby Corp.'s assembly lines, originally designed to make parts for tank-landing boats, were last week turning out bombs for Flying Fortresses.

> Mack Truck's big tank-part plant at Allentown, Pa. was fortuitously near an abandoned airport. So when tank production was cut back the Allentown plant made an ideal spot for Navy torpedo bomber production by Vultee Aircraft. Cost of the changeover (including fixing up the airport): $6,000,000 v. the $15,000,000 it would have cost to start fresh.

> With the help of 46 subcontractors, American Type Founders has switched its precision tools from making tank guns to airplane parts.

Perhaps the most encouraging aspect of this use of existing plants and tools for new kinds of war production is the flexibility it gives the U.S. war plant to meet new changes in war strategy. Said one WPB production man last week: "If we use tank plants now to make aircraft parts we will be in better shape to switch back to tanks if that becomes necessary."

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