Year of Decision

In Chungking last week political experts sipped cups of scalding tea and discussed the possibility of a Japanese peace offensive. Japan's militarists, the Chungkingers reasoned, know that Axis defeat is inevitable, hence hope to drive a bargain with the Allies.

But in Japan, the little people had no hope for peace, did not suspect that in time the United Nations would crash through to their heartland. They knew only that this was the Kessen year, the year of battle decision.

Fortnight ago, Premier General Hideki Tojo told his nation that "there is only a hair's breadth between victory and defeat," warned that Japan must pay a high price for victory: a national service law, all-out production of ships and planes, increased taxes, spiritual mobilization on the frenzied Yamato pattern exhibited at Tarawa, Makin, Attu.

The Spirit. Tojo spoke not in desperation but from knowledge of his people, their obedience, credulity, imperturbability in the face of hardship. Japan's soldiers, peasants and factory workers expect to win the war; their trump is Yamato Damashii, the "unquenchable spiritual force" of the Japanese people which must match the earthier power of the U.S.'s bigger guns, faster planes, heavier ships. They know Japan has conquered a rich empire, believe that the peoples of East Asia are united against the Western powers. Few of them seriously doubt the extravagant claims of continued victories, because they have no access to other information.

The Flesh. By U.S. standards, living conditions in Japan are intolerable. Seasonal rice workers earn 4.29 yen a day (before war-time inflation, the yen was quoted at 23 1/2 U.S. cents), war workers six yen. Japanese will pay a general income tax of 10 to 20%, a sales tax of 20 to 120% on all commodities except basic foods and cotton textiles. Eighty percent of the national income will go to the Government in taxes and bonds.

In addition to some vegetables, each adult gets a ration of nine oz. of rice daily (compared to average prewar consumption of 15.52 oz. and a 1941 ration of 11.68 oz.). Unrationed eggplant, salted turnips and radishes help fill empty bellies; the black market flourishes despite strict police control. Clothing is of poor quality and severely rationed. This winter most public buildings are unheated.

The Fear. The Japanese are obsessed by the fear of air raids, knowing that U.S. planes will strike some day and that they are unprepared. Japanese correspondents in Berlin grimly report the German agony, to prepare their readers for the worst. (Last week German correspondents reported that 15 districts of Tokyo and eight districts in Nagoya, 2.7 sq. mi., would be evacuated in anticipation of future raids.)

National mobilization bites deeply. Only sons and those of rich families are now subject to conscription. Girls over 16 are working in factories beside their mothers.

This concentration of effort touches the Imperial Household. Emperor Hirohito works closely with his service chiefs (TIME, Jan. 24); Empress Nagako comforts wounded soldiers (see cut), indulges in social work.

In underfed and worried Japan no relief can be seen, only years of continued hardship; no group could present any alternative. The Japanese had only Tojo's chilly comfort: "When opposing camps are exhausted, the side whose faith in victory has been shaken and whose fighting spirit has been lost will go down in defeat."

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