The Score

Generals and Admirals warned the U.S. that the war was still on stage, center--but the citizens knew that the scene-shifters were at work backstage, getting ready for the next act--reconversion to peace. For one thing, they could hear the hammering and the arguments (see BUSINESS). This fact dominated not only the U.S. midsummer mood (TIME, July 17), but showed last week in all of Washington's plans for the future.

The pattern for the next few months was becoming clear. As of this week, these were the best guesses, from the men in Washington who should know, of what lies immediately ahead for U.S. citizens:

Cutbacks. As soon as Germany is beaten, war production will be cut back 50%, if WPB's Donald Nelson gets his way; 35% if the Army has the say. U.S. economy has expanded so much that even a 35% cutback is expected to provide almost as much manpower, material and facilities for civilian production as before the war.

Rationing. OPA expects rationing to continue until after the first harvest in Europe--probably the fall of 1945. In the immediate future meats will be rationed again. So will canned goods, but not so tightly as before. Last year OPA piled up a big canned surplus--some of which the U.S. has been eating point-free this summer. This time OPA plans to market the entire pack. Sugar rationing will get no lighter, as supplies are 25% below 1941. Probably used cars will be rationed by year's end, clothes will not. Shoemen fear an end to shoe rationing.

Fuel. Coal production is better than originally forecast, but the Eastern Seaboard will still get only about 87 1/2% of its normal supply. No talk is heard of rationing wood, the nation's No. 2 fuel supply, although the U.S. will be eleven million cords short of its needs. Fuel oil users in 33 states can expect rationing again.

Draft. Most men over 29 are apparently safe for the duration. Selective Service still calls up men over 29 who are not in essential industries, but draft boards are getting more liberal about interpreting "essential work." The accent is on youth.

Demobilization. When the war ends, mothers and wives should not expect their men back soon. Probability: a slow demobilization, only about 250,000 a month. One Army school of thought (including most soldiers) favors demobilizing veteran troops first. Another favors holding them longest, because they are better experienced. Likely compromise: some veterans will be kept to "salt" green troops. One sure bet: veteran jungle fighters will be demobilized as soon as possible, for reasons of health as well as morale. Even after Germany surrenders, the Army expects to keep 2,000,000 troops in Europe. Probable size of the eventual U.S. peacetime Army: 2,500,000 men. Probable size of the Navy: the world's biggest.

Civilian Goods. U.S. housewives may get cocktail shakers before they get vacuum cleaners. Reason: articles which need few parts can be made quickest, as soon as metal is available. First goods to be made from surplus metals will be teakettles, washtubs, tableware, pots & pans, hairpins, safety pins, etc. Second in line are things made in quantity now, but largely absorbed by the Army. Sample: radio equipment. The radio industry has expanded about twelve times; even an 8% cutback would take care of prewar civilian demands. But--Army & Navy demands for radio-radar equipment are going up.

Third in line are goods which have many or rotating parts: such wife-savers as washing machines, refrigerators, vacuum cleaners, irons, cooking equipment. Last in line for civilian manufacture are articles using materials in which there will still be shortages even after Germany's defeat. Samples: lumber, paper, textiles.

Wages. There is practically no chance of the wage freeze being lifted before war's end. WLB hopes to hang on to the Little Steel Formula.

Taxes. No real tax cut is expected until 1946, even though expenditures drop sharply when the European war stops.

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