Polio Patterns

The polio epidemic, worst in the U.S. since 1916, was still rising last week. A total of 1,250 new cases, up 235 from the week before, was reported for the week ending Aug. 19, and the National Foundation for Infantile Paralysis predicted that the curve would rise to a peak some time in the fortnight between Sept. 5 and 19. The Foundation rushed epidemic aid to 13 states (hardest hit: New York. North Carolina, Kentucky, Pennsylvania, Virginia). At least two major cities. Buffalo and Washington, had attacks even worse than in 1916.

The 1944 total to date was 6,259 cases, nearly 1,200 more than in the same period of 1931, the second worst epidemic year.

In 1916, when weekly records were not kept, the full year's total was 27,621.

Medicine is still unable to report any progress toward a cure for the disease, or even toward learning how it is transmitted. But last week the Foundation said it had developed a fairly accurate system for predicting where and how hard the disease will hit.

Polio follows a regular, seasonal course.

By mid-June it is possible to estimate roughly how high the curve will rise in any given year (see chart). Though the disease is commonly supposed to be promoted by hot weather, the Foundation's charts indicate that weather has little to do with it; the U.S. peak almost invariably comes in mid-September, regardless of the temperature (a notable exception: 1931, when the peak came at the end of August). The disease also seems to have a general cycle of four or five years--a fact which makes it possible to determine the general areas where polio is most likely to be troublesome in a given year.

Another specially striking polio pattern was suggested by Dr. James Fleece Rinehart, of the University of California Hospital. Looking for clues to human resistance to the disease, he found that polio victims had a subnormal amount of salt in their blood. Previous studies have pointed out that the disease seems to attack particularly healthy youngsters after strenuous summer athletics--when they would presumably have sweated out a lot of salt. His tentative conclusion: if you haven't enough salt in your system, you may be an easier victim of polio.

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