The Pendulum Swings

In December, when Rundstedt broke through in the Ardennes, gloom lay heavy on the western Allies. Last week, as Joseph Stalin's armies thundered into the eastern Reich, the pendulum was swinging back to rosy optimism. Perhaps, once more, it was swinging too far.

There was no optimism in Germany. The Goebbels propagandists had learned that they could wring the last bitter ounce of resistance from the people by telling the truth about the enemy's power and the enemy's inroads--and by painting the enemy's intentions blacker than hell.

The German people heard that industrial Silesia was lost; that the "Bolsheviks" had pierced Brandenburg, Berlin's home province; that the enemy had cut off East Prussia (see below). The lowly Volkssturm was called out to help stem the tide. The westward flood of refugees hampered the movement of army units to the front, forcing Heinrich Himmler to use his SS men as traffic controllers.

Manpower. Germany has about 90 divisions fighting on secondary fronts (Italy, the Balkans), or on garrison duty in Norway and elsewhere, or isolated in the French ports, the Mediterranean islands, Latvia. From Hungary to East Prussia, Hitler had about 180 divisions with which to face Stalin's great winter offensive. In December, he had about 80 divisions, including reserves, marshaled against Eisenhower in the west. Last week the Russians claimed 295,000 Hitlerites killed, 86,000 captured since Jan. 12, and 200,000 more encircled in East Prussia. The U.S. had claimed 90.000 enemy casualties in the battle of the Ardennes. Allowing 10,000 men to a division, the U.S. and Russian claims together equaled 67 German divisions.

Perhaps the figures were optimistic, on both sides--but the Germans were already showing the effect of serious losses. Although they kept up their bizarre token offensive in Alsace, they were pulling men and armor out of the Rhineland into central Germany, evidently hoping to hold the Westwall with Volksgrenadiere. The British profited by this withdrawal to move up to the Roer River, while Allied air attacks on the enemy's eastward movement gave direct tactical help to Russia.

Prospects. Yet Rundstedt's offensive had won Germany a respite in the west. Front correspondents estimated that Eisenhower could not launch a full-scale blow for another month at least. By then, spring thaws in the east would be slowing the Russians, if they were not already halted by overstrained supply lines. And the Nazis had not yet shown what sort of stand they could make in their inner eastern defenses.

If the Russians follow their familiar pattern, they will firmly secure the Pomeranian and Silesian flanks before they move on Berlin. If Berlin is lost before the western Allies move, the Nazis will still hold the Ruhr. When that is gone, they will still have the industries of central and southern Germany, Austria, Bohemia to nourish a diminished, compact and desperate Wehrmacht for a while longer.

Before then, of course, might come the internal convulsion that would wreck the Third Reich for good & all. There were few portents of any such convulsion last week. Germany's leaders still had two hopes: 1) a serious quarrel among the Allies; 2) deadly new V-weapons which Nazi scientists are struggling to bring into action.

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