Politics & War

Russia's denunciation of the neutrality pact with Japan was merely an act of politics and diplomacy. But no one knows better than the Japanese that war is merely the continuation of politics by other means. As realists, the Japs could scarcely doubt that now the question is not whether, but rather where and when.

The border between Russian Siberia and Jap-held Manchuria is 2,100 miles long, much of it trackless country designed by nature for frontier incidents. Tokyo and Moscow reported some 2,500 such clashes between 1931 and 1942; any one of them would have been enough to touch off a war if either nation had been in the mood.

Powerful forces are ranged along the border. At peak strength the Russians probably had 800,000 trained troops, with modern armor and planes, in Siberia. The Japs' crack Kwantung army, which holds its mandate direct from the Emperor and runs Manchuria like a private estate, may have 1,000,000 men. The Red Army took many of its best Siberian divisions west to fight the Germans in the last three years; they may or may not have been replaced. On the other hand, six Jap divisions from Manchuria were chopped up in the Philippines.

If the clash comes, presumably the Russians feel confident of running their own show in the land fighting, but would look to the U.S. for sea power and strategic air power. And until the clash comes, such delicate matters as the allocation of bases and the maintenance of sea and air supply lines can scarcely even be thought about, in public.

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