Surrender or Die

On the other side of the world Japan's only ally, Nazi Germany, was crumbling to final ruin. Her potential new enemy, Soviet Russia, stood huge and menacing on the Manchurian border. She was virtually cut off from the rubber, oil, tin and foodstuffs of the South Seas. She had lost more than 1,800 merchant ships. In the mathematics of war, if not on last week's calendar, Japan was close to defeat.

Bottoms Up. The Japanese Navy is almost gone: in types of warships down to and including destroyers, she has about three dozen ill-assorted vessels left. She still has some 100 standard-size submarines and many more midgets; but the U.S. and British navies have learned how to win war under the sea.

She has about 8,000 planes, of which half are front-line combat aircraft. Until recently she was producing 1,500 planes a month, more than enough to make good her losses. But U.S. Superfortress raids have cut production by 35 or 40%. Her air establishment is falling behind, and she is seriously short of pilots.

U.S. air-war planners are elated over the results of fire raids on Tokyo, which have exceeded expectations. Within the Tokyo city limits, 32.7 square miles have been burned out.

Guess Again. Of her army, Japan now has about 25 combat divisions stationed in the home islands, 33 in China and Manchuria. The salvage from Burma will probably add little to this total; the doomed remnants of Okinawa, the Philippines and the abandoned garrisons of bypassed islands will add none at all. Yet

Japan's foremost problem is not army manpower: new divisions are constantly being recruited. The problem is to guess when and where the invasion of the home islands is coming. If the Jap generals guess wrong, as they have so often done, there will be no time to shift dispositions. No Substitute. The invasion of the Jap heartland is definitely around the bend; Allied war planners in Washington know that there is no substitute for attack. No doubt Japan can be weakened further by naval blockade and stepped-up air bombardment, and U.S. air and Navy men who want to test theory on the proving ground of war will have a chance to show what they can do. Months must elapse before the final attack; more air bases, even nearer to the Empire's heartland, may be acquired. Nevertheless, blockade and air attack will remain in the status of accessory and preliminary operations. After them will come invasion. And to halt that attack, Japan has only one sure means: surrender.

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