Everything for Everybody?

"If we can continue to spread the benefits of a constantly increasing productivity in the U.S., we can go on to economic and cultural heights as far--and farther--above those of today as those of 1947 are beyond the imaginings of our great-grandfathers back in 1840."

These measured words last week introduced a highly optimistic and monumental (500,000-word) report on the U.S. economy (America's Needs and Resources) by the Twentieth Century Fund. Probably the most comprehensive ever made on the subject, the study was completed last week--when some optimism was sorely needed--after three and a half years of fulltime work by a staff of 27 economic experts.

Chief of the staff was conservative, scholarly Dr. James Frederic Dewhurst, 52, ex-professor and onetime head of economic research for the Department of Commerce. The report's most important conclusion is that the U.S., for the first time, is close to having the tools, workers and know-how to nil the basic needs of its population. This hopeful prospect is not a prediction. It is a statistical projection based on normal long-term trends of U.S. growth--in population, wealth, consumption, demand, spending, etc., and the assumption that the U.S. will not be plunged into a catastrophic depression or war.

Plenty of Elbow Room. Unlike "mature school" economists, the Twentieth Century report finds that there is plenty of room for dynamic expansion in the U.S. economy. Thus the report estimates that in 1950 57,000,000 will be employed. They will be working fewer hours (an average of 41 a week) to produce a gross national product of $177 billion (in terms of 1944 prices)--nearly double the best prewar year. The U.S. economy will then be short only some 13% in goods & services of maintaining the entire population at a satisfactory standard of living. By 1960, some 60,200,000 people will be working an average of 38 hours a week to turn out goods & services worth $202 billion.

These estimates are based on demand and not need, between which the report draws a sharp distinction. "Witness the American male, who prefers steak and potatoes and apple pie to a better-balanced diet. Too many of us drink milk dutifully, but highballs gladly." If the U.S. were to try to supply all needs (minimum standards of health and decency for everyone) as well as all demands (all the goods which the wealthier want to purchase), then the estimates would have to be raised. The U.S. would have to turn out goods & services worth $200 billion by 1950 and $219 billion by 1960.

Plenty of Elbow Grease. The key to whether the U.S. will reach these goals is productivity--the combination of labor efficiency and technological improvement. A startling example of what improvement in productivity means: national output in 1940 was 27 times larger than in 1850, though the labor force was only nine times greater and worked only 43 hours a week instead of 70. If such productivity continues its average rate of growth since 1850 (18% a decade), the U.S. will easily meet the estimated demands for 1950-60. If it grows at the rate which prevailed in. the last two decades (20%), the U.S. would nearly meet estimated needs as well.

In the light of current production, the report seemed conservative. There are now 58,000,000 employed and the gross national product is running at the rate of about $195 billion ($166 billion in 1944 prices). The report expects that the present working force will drop as some of the overfull employment is eliminated. Nevertheless, to come up to the report's minimum projection, the U.S. will have to increase its output only 7% in the next four years. Compared to what the U.S. has done in the last six years under forced draft, this seemed small.

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