War?

No man (except perhaps Joseph Stalin") knew whether war was near. Wars had been touched off by pretty eyes (1200 B.C.), by a garbled telegram (1870), and even by Jenkins' ear (1739). But most wars, including the Trojan, the Franco-Prussian, and that of Jenkins' ear, are caused not by incidents but by somebody's belief that he can get something by war that he cannot get any other way.

By that test, the Berlin crisis had not brought war any nearer, in spite of the the heart-in-mouth atmosphere which prevailed at week's end in Washington, Paris, London and Berlin. The Russians also knew that the West was stronger and hoped that the West's advantage would diminish. If & when it diminished, Russia would have a better chance to win a war.

Nothing in the Berlin crisis gave the Kremlin any reason to think it could get what it wanted by war. In fact, the West looked stronger and more united than it had for two years. That the West's position in Berlin was militarily untenable if the Red army attacked was no new discovery. The Russians have known for two years that they could take Berlin--and much more. What deterred them was not Western strength on the spot, but the strength they feared the West could and would mobilize.

Thus a reasonable assessment would conclude that the chance of war had not increased. Although men do not always act reasonably, nobody in the West but a certified prophet had a right to predict (as some uncertified prophets did last week) that war was close.

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