The Hopeful Season

After a hard look at all the recent good news on the state of the nation's economy, businessmen broke out last week in a chorus of cheery predictions. The Research Institute of America polled its 30,000 member companies, reported: "1950 will be a close carbon copy of 1949, with a tendency on the down side which, however, will be held to a minimum." At its annual convention in Hollywood, Fla., the Investment Bankers' Association was even more optimistic. Polling the 950 delegates, the San Francisco News found that 67% expected "a business recovery in 1950," and that most thought the upturn would come in the first six months. (They also believed that industry should set up pension plans for workers, but felt that the workers should contribute to them.) And 91% of the investment bankers thought that the stock market would advance or at worst hold its own during 1950.

The stock market backed them up last week as it gave further encouragement to those who think it is a bull market. The Dow-Jones industrial average edged up to 194.74, the highest point in more than three years. Employment was also on the upgrade. The 59,518,000 at work in November, according to the Census Bureau, were 517,000 more than the previous month. This week employment was swelled still more, as thousands of auto workers streamed back to the assembly lines of General Motors and Chrysler, which had been shut down for model changeovers. Although department store sales for the week ending Dec. 3 were 8% below 1948, some stores reported that the first wave of holiday buying was of tidal size. In a single day last week, R.H. Macy & Co.'s New York store sold $1,442,561 of merchandise, an alltime record.

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