Measure of Muscle

In his first quarterly report to the nation last week (see NATIONAL AFFAIRS), Mobilizer Charles E. Wilson measured the muscles of America's husky defense effort. No one was surprised at the punch which has already been restored to U.S. military power, but many consumers were startled to hear an unexpected bit of good news. Civilian output will be higher than the most optimistic guesses of a few months ago. Wilson's estimates

P: Radios: 14 million units, about the same as in 1950.

P: Television sets: nearly 7,000,000, slightly less than last year.

P: Autos: 5,000,000 v. 6,600,000 in 1950.

P: Refrigerators: slightly less than last year's 6,000,000.

P: Automatic washers: 3,000,000 v. 4,000,000 in 1950.

But, Wilson warned, military production will start biting deeply into civilian output by year's end. Military orders, now taking 12% of the nation's steel, will approach 20% by Dec. 31. Defense consumption of copper will jump the same amount, and military orders are expected to use 25% of all U.S. aluminum in 1951.

To make sure that defense needs are met, said Wilson, "a form of controlled materials plan . . . will be placed into effect later in the year." Under CMP, materials will probably be allocated for all arms contracts from the raw stage to the finished product. Everything from steel ..to nuts & bolts and electronic gadgets may be ticketed for a specific contractor. But Wilson still has not made up his mind whether CMP will cover all materials, both for civilian goods and arms, or just for arms. (Prospects are that CMP will just cover armament production.) By such tight controls, Wilson will push military production to the point where it will take 20% of the gross national product by 1953, compared to 8% now, thus bring many a civilian-goods shortage.

By 1953, barring all-out war, Wilson expects arms output to have reached its height and begin tapering off. Then civilian production will rise again. For example, new plants will turn out so much aluminum in 1953 that the military will be able to take 500,000 tons and still leave civilians about as much as they got before Korea. By 1953, a greatly expanded U.S. industrial plant should be able to carry the burden of war & peace production with comparative ease. By then, said Wilson, "we can probably begin to talk about taking off controls."

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