WHERE THEY STAND: A TAFT-IKE COUNT

Although the Republican National Convention is seven months away, its 1,200 delegates are already being lined up by state party leaders. At the convention the ranks may break; but now they are forming.

The campaign has already narrowed to a fight between Taft and Eisenhower; withdrawal of either would almost certainly result in victory for the other. Favorite sons and other minor candidates have less than 200 votes among them. None seems to have 25 votes outside his own state.

Taft seems to have 400 votes pretty solidly nailed down. Eisenhower, if he declares his candidacy soon, might count on 300 as a starting bloc. What inroads he might make on the remaining 300 loose votes depends largely on the vigor of his campaign managers who, so far, have let Taft steal a long, long march.

On the basis of reports from its correspondents throughout the U.S., TIME has compiled the following rundown of the present line-up of Republican delegations:

ALABAMA--14. Taft has eight or ten. State Chairman Claude O. Vardaman, who leans toward Eisenhower, may control from two to six votes.

ARIZONA--14. Taftmen claim all 14. Key man is Governor Howard Pyle, publicly committed to neither candidate. He leans to Taft, but weighs carefully the growing Eisenhower sentiment in his state.

ARKANSAS--11. Taft, with National Committeeman Wallace Townsend and Little Rock Mayor Pratt Remmel, has at least six votes.

CALIFORNIA--70. TIME'S San Francisco bureau reports: "Governor Earl Warren will hold on to California's 70 votes as long as he thinks he has any chance to be nominated. If forced to choose between Taft and Eisenhower, Warren probably will support Ike."

COLORADO--18. Taft claims a majority. Ike's friends in Colorado have not yet begun an active campaign for him.

CONNECTICUT--22. Taftmen concede to Eisenhower.

DELAWARE--12. Divided. Senator John Williams is publicly uncommitted, but probably for Taft. National Committeeman Francis V. du Pont is counted as leaning toward Eisenhower.

FLORIDA--18. State Chairman H. G. Alexander and a majority of the 102-member Republican committee are Taft's. Dade County (Miami) Republicans are demanding election of delegates at a primary, which would help Eisenhower. Taft claims the full delegation, will probably get most of it.

GEORGIA--17. National Committeeman Harry Sommers, Atlanta automobile dealer and longtime friend of Tom Dewey, has made the jump to Taft. Coca-Cola President Robert Woodruff is an Ikeman. A strong Eisenhower campaign might win Georgia delegates, TIME'S Atlanta bureau reports.

IDAHO--14. All Taft.

ILLINOIS--60. All Taft.

INDIANA--32. Taft claims the State solidly. Eisenhower might break off a few.

IOWA--26. Iowa National Committeeman Harrison E. Spangler is for Taft. Governor William S. Beardsley is an Ikeman. Taft claims a majority of the delegation.

KENTUCKY--20. Taftmen claim the entire delegation. TIME'S correspondent at Louisville gives Taft 15 on the first ballot.

KANSAS--22. Of Kansas Republicans, only U.S. Senator Andrew F. Schoeppel makes Taft noises. Kansas-reared Eisenhower will probably get all or nearly all of the Kansas delegation.

LOUISIANA--15. Republican National Committeeman John E. Jackson claims the delegation for Taft. Eisenhower leader in Louisiana is John Minor Wisdom, New Orleans lawyer. A primary fight on Jan. 15, between Wisdom's group and Jackson's, might put some strength in the Eisenhower movement.

MAINE--16. Divided. Senator Owen Brewster is for Taft. National Committeeman Fred C. Scribner, former Governor Percival P. Baxter and Governor Frederick G. Payne are for Eisenhower. Ikemen claim twelve.

MARYLAND--24. Senator John Marshall Butler is a staunch Taftman, but controls no vote in the delegation except his own. The other 23 will be tightly controlled by Governor Theodore R. McKeldin, who will get its first-ballot vote as a favorite-son candidate. Taft's Southern manager, Carroll Reece, has missed no opportunity to wine & dine him for the past six months. Ikemen hopefully recall that McKeldin was one of the earliest Dewey-men in 1948.

MASSACHUSETTS--38. Both U.S. Senators, Ike Manager Lodge and Leverett Saltonstall, are publicly for Eisenhower. Best current estimate: Eisenhower, 30; Taft, 8.

MICHIGAN--46. The Eisenhower campaign in Michigan will be managed by Arthur H. Vandenberg Jr., who may also run for his father's Senate seat. Other Michigan Republican leaders have kept discreetly mum. Key man is wealthy Flint Chevrolet Dealer Arthur Summerfield, the national Committeeman. Reports TIME'S Detroit bureau: "At the moment, Taft would be the choice. Summerfield is smart, however, and has heard the little man's rumblings about Ike. He is still free to go either way."

MINNESOTA--28. Will go for Favorite-Son Harold Stassen on the first ballot, and Stassen strength is more likely to go to Eisenhower than to Taft.

MISSISSIPPI--4. Taft.

MISSOURI--26. Eisenhower has strong public support from Roy Roberts and his Kansas City Star. National Committeeman Howard Stephens is publicly for Stassen. Taft has considerable strength outside of Kansas City and St. Louis. The Missouri delegation might split about evenly between Taft and Eisenhower, if Stassen threw his strength to Ike.

MONTANA--8. Taftmen consider themselves "in good shape." Reports TIME'S correspondent at Great Falls: "Taft will get the Montana delegation unless there is a dramatic Ike movement."

NEBRASKA--18. Delegates will be elected at a primary on April 1 which many political seers believe Eisenhower could win. Governor Val Peterson is counted for Eisenhower.

NEVADA--12. Undecided.

NEW JERSEY--38. Delegation will vote for Favorite-Son Governor Alfred E. Driscoll on early ballots. Then majority are expected to go along with Driscoll to Eisenhower. Taftmen make no claims, may get 4 to 6 when delegation shifts.

NEW HAMPSHIRE--14. Ikemen believe they will have the support of U.S. Senators Styles Bridges and Charles Tobey, Governor Sherman Adams, both national committeemen and the state chairman. They expect to put Ike's name on the ballot in a preferential primary to be held March 11. Taft intends to duck this primary rather than be beaten.

NEW MEXICO--14. Governor Edwin Mechem and State Chairman Harry Robins like Taft. Reports TIME'S correspondent at Santa Fe: "They want a winner, and even though their sympathies are overwhelmingly with Taft, the potential winner to them looks like Eisenhower."

NEW YORK--96. Taftmen concede Ike-man Governor Tom Dewey overwhelming control, claim only 6.

NORTH CAROLINA--26. Taftmen claim 15 of the North Carolina delegation. Former Republican Chairman Sim A. Delapp is the only publicly committed Eisenhower man, although the present chairman, J. M. Baley, is reported leaning toward Eisenhower. Eisenhower activity could make inroads into Taft's strength.

NORTH DAKOTA--14. Taft claims the state. TIME'S correspondent in Bismarck gives Taft 9 delegates, Eisenhower 3, Warren and Stassen one each.

OHIO--56. Taft.

OKLAHOMA--16. Reports TIME'S correspondent at Oklahoma City: "A declaration by Ike in January or February could easily upset the present drift to Taft."

OREGON--18. Oregon delegates will be elected in the Republican primary, May 16, only seven weeks before the convention. Governor Douglas McKay and Senator Wayne Morse are enthusiastic Ikemen. Oregon is a tricky problem for Taft, and his strategists may decide to stay out of the primary.

PENNSYLVANIA--70. Ikeman Senator Jim Duff has no more than 25. U.S. Senator Edward Martin, National Committeeman G. Mason Owlett and the rest of the Grundy organization are for Taft. State Chairman M. Harvey Taylor will stand pat with Duff for Ike. Taftmen at the moment are counting on only the ten sure Grundy delegates. Half the delegation will go with Governor John S. Fine, originally a Duffman but now friendly to Grundy. So far, Fine has remained coldly neutral. He has one of the biggest piles of chips in the game.

RHODE ISLAND--8. Ikemen claim delegation, but no votes are nailed down.

SOUTH CAROLINA--6. Taft.

SOUTH DAKOTA--14. Some energy has been expended to make a favorite son out of Senator Karl Mundt. Taftmen, relying on Mundt, claim the state.

TENNESSEE1--2O. Taft's Southern Manager Carroll Reece will control the delegation for his home state.

TEXAS--38. The Texas delegation is caught up in a fight for control of the state party machinery. National Committeeman Henry Zweifel and State Chairman Orville Bullington are for Taft. If they stay in the saddle they can deliver 32 votes. Zweifel is challenged for control of the party by Houston Oilman H. J. Porter, an Ikeman. As in most organizational political fights, the incumbent bosses have a big advantage.

UTAH--14. Taft.

VERMONT--12. Divided. Governor Lee E. Emerson, uncommitted, is claimed privately by both sides. National Committeeman James F. Dewey, distant cousin of the New York Governor, is for Taft. State Chairman Frederick P. Smith indicates his support of Eisenhower.

VIRGINIA--23. Taft claims the state in the face of hopeful but faint dissent from Ikemen. Strong man in Virginia's Republican Party is National Committeeman Curtis M. Dozier of Richmond. Taft will make a major speech at Richmond in mid-January in an attempt to clinch Dozier.

WASHINGTON--18. Taft has a strong organization in the Republican Party machine. But if Eisenhower announces soon enough, he can count on Governor Arthur Langlie, who is running for re-election in a tight race and would much prefer to run with Eisenhower than with Taft. U.S. Senator Harry Cain, who is also in a tough re-election fight, says nothing.

WEST VIRGINIA--16. Republican leaders met privately several weeks ago, decided that Taft was their man. Vigorous Eisenhower activity might break off a few delegates.

WISCONSIN--30. Taftmen have high hopes in Wisconsin, which elects its delegates by primary April 1. Taft Manager David Ingalls made his biggest breakthrough in August when he signed up Thomas E. Coleman of Madison, state G.O.P. leader. Taft himself will make a courthouse-steps campaign in Wisconsin, flanked by Wisconsin's own Senator Joe McCarthy. Wisconsin is as ticklish a problem for Ike as Oregon is for Taft. Reports TIME'S correspondent in Madison: "Some Republicans say Eisenhower would be foolish to make a late entry and risk a bad showing, but a dramatic late entry by Eisenhower might counteract all the work done up to that time by Taft supporters."

WYOMING--12. Governor Frank A. Barrett leans to Ike. Principal Taftman is Speaker of the House Frank Mockler.

THE TERRITORIES--21. Taftmen claim 19.

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