Closer Than Ever

The Republican presidential contenders were pounding hard around the far turn last week, and the race was closer than ever. Bob Taft's strategy had been to leap into the lead at the post, and stay well ahead. Ike Eisenhower had started slowly, but had gained steadily after he settled down to run in earnest. Now, for the first time, the general was just about neck & neck with the Senator in the only statistic that really counts: the number of committed delegates (see box).

Chipping & Corralling. The closeness of the race was something of a triumph for both sides. Despite the great, popular groundswell that rolled up for Ike in New Hampshire, New Jersey and Minnesota, Taft had rolled up most of the delegates in Wisconsin, Illinois and Nebraska. But the Eisenhower forces had inched out important gains that upset the Taft organization's neat plan for early victory. That plan called for a solid convention-week bloc of 500 delegates from three Taft strongholds--the Midwest, the South, and the Mountain States--plus more than 100 scattered reinforcements from other parts of the country. The Eisenhower forces chipped away some of Taft's Midwest bloc, e.g., Iowa, 15 for Ike, nine for Taft, corralled some delegates in the Mountain States, and were applying the Eisenhower brand of solvent to Taft's Solid South (see below).

Candidate Eisenhower's biggest single gain in delegates came last week when New York's district delegates were picked. The gain was expected, since Ikeman Tom Dewey controls the New York G.O.P. organization. But the figures were still impressive: 73 for Ike, one for Taft, 16 in doubt. In nine clear-cut contests between pledged delegate candidates, Ike won eight, Taft one.

For the next month, the race will continue to be close. Ohioan Taft will make some important gains when his home state names its 56 delegates May 6. But Ike will be picking up delegates along the way, too. Neither candidate is likely to jump into a commanding lead until four big, key delegations begin to get into line. The four: Pennsylvania (70), Michigan (46), Texas (38), and California (70).

Confusing & Varied. In Pennsylvania last week, General Eisenhower won another popular victory. He ran away with Pennsylvania's presidential preference primary, polling 847,420 votes, the most any candidate ever got in a Pennsylvania primary. Bluff Senator Jim Duff was the state's only big Republican in public support of Eisenhower, and the machine of former Senator Joseph R. Grundy was solid against him. But Ike ran 31,000 votes ahead of Senator Ed Martin, who won renomination with the zealous support of all the regular G.O.P. organization. In eight head-on tests, the voters elected six Ike-pledged delegates, only two for Taft.

Despite the Eisenhower victory, however, only seven of Pennsylvania's delegates could be firmly counted for Ike. Two were for Taft (who got a record 172,829 write-in votes in the preference poll), and the rest had to be listed as uncommitted. Reason: the presidential preference vote is just "eyewash" to the Pennsylvania politicos. The key man now is Governor John S. Fine, who will control 32 of the delegates. He wasn't saying where his votes will go, but he did not seem overly impressed by the primary result. Said he: "Election returns speak what partisans desire to read into them. Many of the answers are as confusing as they are varied."

Confidence & Doubt. In Michigan, only 13 of the 46 delegates are solidly committed (seven for Eisenhower, six for Taft). But in Texas, where delegates will be chosen at a state convention May 27, and in California, where the delegation is still in Earl Warren's pocket, Eisenhower supporters struck one shrewd blow last week. H. J. (Jack) Porter, head of the Eisenhower-for-President Club of Texas, said he wrote Ike asking him whether he favors "state or federal ownership of the 'tidelands.'" Ike's reply (which pleased oil-rich Texas and California alike): "Once again, I agree with the principle that federal ownership in this case, as in others, is one that is calculated to bring about steady progress toward centralized ownership and control, a trend which I have bitterly opposed."

With the race in balance and the first ballot at the national convention only ten weeks away, both sides were outwardly confident. The Taft forces held firm to their prediction of 650 first-ballot votes, 47 more than enough for nomination. Said Henry Cabot Lodge, Ike's campaign manager: "We're in striking distance of the first ballot." But in spite of these calm expressions of confidence, the wise politicians on both sides knew that the big breaks ahead could still throw the race either way.

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