To the Brown Palace

The Republican presidential race is in a later stage than many voters realize. The final phase will be the convention itself, but what happens in the seven weeks between now and the first ballot may be more important.

Usually at this time, there are six or seven candidates whose presence increases the possibility of a deadlock between the two leaders. The peculiarity of this contest is that it has narrowed down so sharply to two men. Other candidates are expected to have only about 100 of the 1,206 convention votes. Under those circumstances a prolonged deadlock is unlikely, even though the votes pledged to Taft and Eisenhower may be very close.

This week Taft has 367 first-ballot votes more or less nailed down by public commitment or election processes; Eisenhower has 338. In addition, there are a number of votes not definitely committed which can nevertheless be forecast with a fair degree of confidence (see box on next page). Adding these to the committed votes gives Taft 479, Ike 406.

This leaves 321 delegates who fall into three groups:

Other Candidates. Warren will have California's 70 and six from Wisconsin. Stassen has 26. The delegates pledged to both are known to prefer Ike over Taft. MacArthur has two committed delegates and will probably have a few more. He is urging his supporters to go for Taft.

Contested Delegations. There will almost certainly be rival Taft-Ike delegations from Texas (38), Georgia (17) and Louisiana (15). It is up to the convention to decide which delegation to seat. The rules provide that the party National Committee may seat a contested delegation temporarily while the contest is being decided. Taft men have a heavy majority of the National Committee. Taft will probably control more delegations than Ike, and therefore a majority of the credentials committee. A majority of the convention itself could reverse the credentials committee, and if Taft loses that fight it will be good evidence that he is beaten. If the Warren and Stassen votes are added to Ike's 406, he will have 508. If the three contested delegations are added to Taft's 479, he will have 549.

Uncommitted Delegates. These estimates leave 149 votes to be accounted for. Among them are some whose present inclination can be guessed. Most of the 149, however, are still on the fence. To the delegates, the most important factor in making up their minds will be the desire to back the winner. Thus the race has reached the stage where any unexpected gain of ten or 15 delegates might influence more delegates to come along.

Of the uncommitted, the largest bloc is controlled by Governor John Fine of Pennsylvania. That state's votes are split, Ike 20, Taft 18, and 32 standing in the middle with Fine. Pennsylvania's governor is a stout admirer of Douglas MacArthur. Presumably, MacArthur is urging Fine, as he has urged others, to vote for Taft. Fine, a fluid operator, is in a superb bargaining position and is taking his time, full of the knowledge that his decision, properly timed, may be the decisive factor in starting a landslide.

The next largest bloc of uncommitted votes is in Michigan. Taft has ten, Ike ten, and the remaining 26 are uncommitted. Their spokesman is National Committeeman Arthur Summerfield, whose leverage in the present situation is second only to Fine's.

Ike's Mission. From here on, the critical struggle is for the allegiance of the uncommitted 149. Moreover, some of the 885 more or less committed delegates may be swayed from one side to the other, especially toward whatever side seems to be making headway among the 149.

Ike's leaders are counting on him to do the most effective work in personal conversations after his return the week after next. Ike's mission in the period between his return and the convention is to corral a few score delegates, not to impress millions of voters. He has to be careful not to arouse the animosity of any large number of voters, but it is too late in the day for increased popular support to help him much with the delegates.

He will return June 1, make a speech in Abilene June 4, and then spend a week in New York. During this period he will talk to John Fine, among others. On June 14 he will move into the Brown Palace in Denver. To its door dozens of delegates are expected to beat their way. The Eisenhower personality and what Eisenhower tells them about his views may bring over enough of the fence-sitting 149 to make all the difference.

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