Wait & See

Any resemblance between the Democratic and Republican pre-convention campaigns of 1952 is purely coincidental and probably misleading. The G.O.P. is staging a two-man fight for delegates with the lines very sharply drawn and seven-eighths of the delegates committed. Because this fight has attracted more public attention, there is a tendency to regard the Democratic contest as the same kind of a race and to overemphasize the count of delegates in that party.

The Democrats are in a far more fluid state--and will probably remain that way until after the end of the Republican convention. The great majority of Democratic delegates are in a wait-and-see state of mind. For one reason or another, the Democratic blocs are not building up emotional heads of steam. The Russell group is primarily interested in a bargaining position which will head off a platform or a candidate unacceptable to the South. The Stevenson group is held in suspension by their man's refusal to say that he is a candidate. The Harriman people are simply getting into position for decisions that will not be made until just before or after the convention meets.

Who's the Enemy? Kefauver is the candidate whose effort most nearly resembles a straight struggle for delegates. Last week, after he picked up 68 delegates from California and eight from South Dakota, he claimed a total strength of about 300. Yet even the Kefauver people know that Truman and the other party leaders will go into the convention in control of 700 or more votes which Kefauver probably cannot touch unless the leaders decide to hand them to him.

Such a decision will be based largely on what the Republicans do. If Taft is the candidate, perhaps Stevenson will find the nomination far more attractive. He can oppose the Senator on both foreign and domestic policy. Harriman will also look a lot better if Taft is the G.O.P. candidate. Both the Harriman name and the Harriman fortune are political liabilities, but these will be less important if he is running against a man who has been smeared for years as a reactionary.

Kefauver, on the other hand, will appear at his worst if he is stacked against Taft. His anti-crime crusader's halo will look a little dull if he is compared with the monument of civic rectitude from Ohio. Kefauver's extreme "internationalism," his Atlantic Union background, will make Taft's foreign policy look like sober sense to a lot of voters.

Keef v. Ike? On the other hand, the Democratic leaders may decide to let Keef run if Ike is the G.O.P. candidate. The Democrats believe they have less chance of beating Ike in any kind of campaign, and they may conclude that their last hope will lie in the kind of slam-bang campaign that Keef can put over.

In the foxy head under Keef's coonskin cap is the knowledge that he cannot win the nomination without support from the top party leaders. On the hustings, he attacks political machines, but when he approaches the White House door he treads as softly as Daniel Boone stalking a doe.

Last week Keef saw Truman and then told reporters that the President was neutral. He did not complain that Truman should support him because there were more delegates in the Kefauver column than any other. Said Kefauver: "I think that [neutrality] is the proper attitude for him to take."

The Democrats at this moment are undecided, but they are not confused and they are not bitterly divided. They have no really hot candidate, but they have a fair string of possibilities from whom they can choose the one best suited to match the Republican choice.

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