Where They Stand

Most of the contenders for the Democratic nomination stuck to their car caravans, airplanes and special trains, talking themselves hoarse and trying to collar delegates (see below). Actually, delegate figures mean little in the Democratic situation, which can best be described in a tired old military term: fluid. There are few "committed" Democratic delegates who would not switch to someone else if Harry Truman or some of the big state bosses gave the nod. In Washington, just about anybody, with the possible exception of the elevator man in the Washington Monument, was being talked about as a possible candidate. This is how the chances of Democratic hopefuls looked last week:

Governor Adlai Stevenson probably could have the nomination for the asking. The heat is on him from all sides, including Administration members, to announce that he is available. Harry Truman, who favored Stevenson, is getting a little cooler. Reasons: 1) Truman is annoyed with Stevenson's refusal to commit himself, suspects him of waiting to see whom the Republicans will nominate. Truman feels that any red-blooded Democrat ought to be ready & willing to run against any Republican. 2) Stevenson has soft-pedaled some Fair Deal program points, and has told friends that he is not sure whether Harry Truman's support would really be an asset to him (Truman was promptly informed of these remarks). This week Stevenson told reporters that if the Democratic Party attempted to draft him, he would "feel free to accept or reject" such a move. But Truman's annoyance does not mean that he would oppose Stevenson if he decides to run.

Averell Harriman is plugging a Fair Deal program after Harry Truman's own heart, but that very fact has provoked strong Southern opposition to him. Harriman's real difficulty: he hasn't much chance if Stevenson is available; Stevenson is more likely to run against Taft than against Eisenhower; Harriman is a far weaker candidate against Eisenhower than against Taft.

Senator Estes Kefauver is still in the lead by delegate strength (he claimed 343 last week, but a calmer estimate would give him 250). The White House and the state bosses still oppose him. Their reasons: 1) he is too inexperienced; 2) he is not really so popular as his publicity would seem to indicate. At the White House and elsewhere in Washington, the anti-Keef arguments run thus: he has been opposed by candidates of national stature in only three primaries (this conveniently overlooks the New Hampshire primary, in which he beat Harry Truman, on the grounds that the President was not actually entered in the race). Of the three, Keef won only one (Nebraska), lost to Russell in Florida and to Harriman in the District of Columbia.

Senator Richard Russell claims some 300 delegates, may have 200. Being strictly a Southern candidate, he can hardly hope to win the nomination.

Senator Robert Kerr has had some quiet success in rounding up delegates since his Nebraska licking at the hands of Estes Kefauver (TIME, April 14). Stevenson's candidacy could stop Kerr cold, but in the event of a long deadlock some delegations might drift to him. Kerr regards himself as the "least unacceptable" candidate to a majority of the delegates.

Vice President Alben Berkley is still considered a live possibility in Washington. No one has as many friends as Barkley among party leaders. His greatest drawback: age (74).

Speaker Sam Rayburn is being mentioned as a dark-horse possibility. Drawbacks: little color or political appeal, little experience outside Congress, age (70).

Harry Truman is still talked about by hopeful Democrats as the only chance for the party if Stevenson refuses to run. Although Truman seems genuinely unwilling to run, and fears for his health if he should try to spend another term in the White House, a draft-Truman movement is not impossible. Truman is not talking on this subject, since he does not want to distract the country's attention from the Republicans' internal squabbles. Although generally a President's influence declines sharply once he announces he will not run again, Truman's hold on Democratic leaders continues remarkably strong because they acknowledge him as the smartest practical politician around. If Harry Truman turns out to have an enormous influence on the convention, it will not be a case of the delegates doing his bidding, but of their following his highly respected judgment.

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