Robin Hood & Arithmetic

The Democratic Party stands in Chicago as a slightly aging Robin Hood with a paunch and a double chin, still bold and confident, but worried about the changing facts of life in Sherwood Forest.

For 20 years the Democrats have carried the nation with slogans of soaking the rich and championing the underdog. In 1952, they hope to do it again. But things have changed: now the villagers as well as the rich get soaked by taxes, and Maid Marian's mink coats have caused comment in the greenwood. There is a feeling that Robin has not been smart about the Communists, and Little John Acheson's foreign policy has caused fear for the future. Above all, Herbert Hoover is not Sheriff of Nottingham this year.

Basic Democratic strategy is to carry the "sure" Democratic states (i.e., those states that have not gone Republican in the last four presidential elections, which include the South plus Arizona, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Rhode Island and Utah, with a total of 190 electoral votes), and add to them New York (45) and California (32). That would make a total of 267 in the electoral college, or one more than necessary to elect a President.

Block in the Old Road. By nominating Ike Eisenhower, the Republicans have upset this calculation. Eisenhower has strength in the South as well as in New York-California (and other populous industrial states).

If the Democrats choose to hold the South at all costs by soft-pedaling FEPC and other New Deal measures hated in the South, they run a very grave risk of losing New York and California. On the other hand, if they try to make sure of New York-California by a hard-hitting New Deal program, they stand to lose a big piece of the South.

One extreme way of dealing with the situation is for the Democrats to stick 100% with the New Deal and take their risk in the South. This, in effect, is advocated by Candidate Averell Harriman and by labor leaders like Walter Reuther.

Where Is the Middle? The other extreme way of dealing with the situation is to hold the South at all costs. This is exemplified by Candidate Richard Russell, who in all likelihood could hold all Southern states against Eisenhower. But Russell is almost certain to wreak havoc in the doubtful Northern and Western states.

The extreme solution of the Harriman and Russell candidacies seemed to be making no progress with the delegates.

Rather than plumping for either extreme course many of the delegates favored a candidate who would have more chance with both the South and New York-California. On the convention's first day, the two names most often heard as meeting this description were those of Illinois' Governor Adlai Stevenson and Vice President Alben Barkley.

Truman, who had cooled somewhat on Stevenson, let it be known that he thought Barkley would be a good candidate. The Barkley boom began to gather surprising momentum--until it was knocked on the head by organized labor. The labor leaders who exercise a veto ("Clear everything with Sidney") on major Democratic decisions, did not object to Barkley on factional grounds. They simply decided that his age (74) made him a difficult candidate to sell to union members.

When word got around Monday night that labor had said no to Barkley, his strength began to melt. Late on the convention's first night, he issued a statement saying that "certain self-anointed political labor leaders" were opposed to him and that other Democratic leaders with large followings who had urged him to run had deserted him for another candidate. Therefore, said Barkley sadly, he was withdrawing.

Earlier in the evening, a Barkley supporter, Jim Farley, told a reporter that he expected Stevenson to be nominated on an early ballot.

Stevenson, by refusing months ago to accept Truman's invitation to run, moved toward a middle-of-the-road position. Many delegates look on him as the candidate most likely to hold the South and carry New York and California. He might win in November by losing a few solidly Democratic states and compensating for them by carrying Illinois and Michigan.

That is the Democratic reasoning which, on opening day, made Stevenson the first or second choice of more convention delegates than seemed drawn to any other candidate.

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