Starting Position

The starting positions in the 1952 presidential race were established this week, as well as they will ever be established, by Pollster George Gallup. In his first post-convention poll, Gallup asked: "If the presidential election were being held today, which political party would you like to see win . . . ?" The results:

Republican 45%

Democratic 43%

Undecided .... .12%

Then he asked a more specific question: ". . . Which candidate would you like to see win--the Republican candidate, Eisenhower, or the Democratic candidate, Stevenson?" Results:

Eisenhower 47 %

Stevenson 41 %

Undecided 12%*

Ike's lead has to be taken with an important qualification. His name is far better known than Stevenson's, a difference which will level off between now and election day. In June Eisenhower led Stevenson 59-31 in a Gallup test. Ike's margin now is smaller than Tom Dewey's was in the first post-convention poll in July 1948, when Dewey led Truman 48-37.

More significant, perhaps, was the percentage in the party poll. Two months ago, Gallup asked a question which was, in effect, much the same as his party question in the new poll. The June question: "Looking ahead for the next few years, which political party ... do you think will be best for people like yourself?" The results showed the Democratic Party leading 42-37. Now, after the nation peered at both parties in action at Chicago, and saw their selection of candidates, the positions are reversed.

In announcing his first post-convention results, Gallup pointed out that his figures are fallible, recalling that his average error in national elections is 3.4 percentage points. Nevertheless, the poll is still the best available measurement of the positions just outside the starting gate. Ike's lead should do nothing to inspire overconfidence among Republicans, although it may dispel some recent G.O.P. misgivings.

* In each case, the 12% who were undecided were asked how they "leaned." Gallup then added the leaners to his totals, with these final results: Republican 48%, Democratic 46%, still undecided 6% ; Eisenhower 50%, Stevenson 43%, still undecided 7% .

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