KEY STATE-ILLINOIS

Illinois played a decisive role in the 1948 election. The state's 27 electoral votes (down one from 1948) may be equally significant this year.

Background: Illinois, once considered a Republican state, has gone Democratic in every presidential election since 1932. Since 1942 it has gone Republican in off-year congressional elections. In 1946 the Republican vote for the House of Representatives was 56.5% of the major party total, leading to widespread G.O.P. belief that Illinois was safe for Dewey in 1948. He lost it when the normal Republican downstate majority failed to materialize. Truman's statewide plurality was only 33,612 out of 3,984,046 votes cast for President. An important oddity of the 1948 Illinois election is that Henry Wallace's name was not on the ballot and he received only about 5,000 write-in votes. In some other important states (New York, California), Republicans comparing this year's prospects with 1948 have to presume that the large 1948 Wallace vote (509,559 in New York, 190,381 in California) will go to Stevenson this year. In Illinois the Wallace weight is unimportant.

In Illinois 1950 congressional elections the Republicans got 53.9% of the major party vote--a drop from their 1946 off-year showing. The state now has 18 Republican Congressmen and eight Democrats. One Senator, Paul Douglas, is a Democrat, one, Everett Dirksen, a Republican. Neither Senate seat is up this year.

In 1948 Stevenson got a thumping plurality of 572,067 votes--highest ever given a candidate for governor --after a vigorous campaign against Governor Dwight Green, who was running for a third term, although his administration had been thoroughly discredited.

Chicago is the Democratic stronghold, usually producing pluralities of around 250,000. The Chicago Democratic machine is the most effective in the U.S. Although Chicago's boss Jacob ("Jack") Arvey is himself not tainted with corruption, organized crime nourishes in Chicago. Republicans frequently charge that the underworld is protected by members of Arvey's organization. The Kefauver Senate committee called Chicago "a focal point for the activities of organized criminals in the U.S."

For Governor: Though most Democratic leaders would have preferred Secretary of State Edward J. Barrett, a noted vote-getter, at Adlai Stevenson's insistence they gave the gubernatorial nomination to bulky, 56-year-old Lieut. Governor Sherwood Dixon. Many Democratic leaders are still openly unhappy about

Dixon, a worthy man but a dull campaigner.

Dixon's opponent, 38-year-old William G. Stratton, served in Congress (1941-43 and 1944-49) and is currently state treasurer. Slight and hatchet-faced, Stratton, an extreme conservative, is conducting a shrill-voiced campaign primarily against Adlai Stevenson ("The most expensive governor in Illinois history"), and dismisses Dixon as "the hand-picked candidate" of Harry Truman's hand-picked man.

Republican Stratton is regarded as an effective campaigner who will beat Dixon unless a Stevenson sweep carries the rest of the ticket along with it.

For President: In Cook County and other urban areas, Republicans have worked hard to make inroads in the huge Negro and Polish-American vote. There is no sign whatever that any large numbers of these blocs have been detached from their Democratic allegiance, but there may be some seepage.

In downstate Illinois, traditionally Republican, the Korean war ranks well above farm policy as an issue. Said a downstate Republican last week: "In the rural areas, just one boy killed or injured out of a church congregation will stagger the whole congregation." Downstate farmers will give Ike more than the lackluster support they gave Dewey in 1948, but many of them still feel that the general has been too "gentlemanly" and has not pounded hard enough at "the blunders that led to Korea."

Illinois is the one state where Stevenson does not have to buck the fact that he is, compared to Ike, almost unknown. In Illinois he is a far stronger candidate than Truman was. But then in Illinois Ike is a far stronger candidate than Dewey was. While there are no signs of large defections from Democratic ranks, Republicans point out that large defections are not necessary for Eisenhower to carry the state. A shift to the Republicans of five 1948 Truman voters in every thousand would put Illinois in the Republican column.

Illinois will see a great deal more campaigning before Nov. 4. Ike, Adlai, Joe McCarthy and Harry Truman are all expected to make major appearances on which a great deal may depend. The Gallup Poll of a few weeks ago showed a slight Ike lead in Illinois. Nevertheless, a careful survey of the state indicates that it should now be marked as Stevenson's by a narrow margin.

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