HOW THEY STAND

As the campaign drew to a close this week, political reporters and poll takers stepped to their adding machines and began to strike totals. They had used polls, "scientific" and otherwise, they had interviewed politicians, taxi drivers, barbers, farmers and one another.

When their findings were added up, most of the old familiar indicators pointed toward victory for Dwight Eisenhower. But one of the hardest political facts of all pointed steadily in the opposite direction. That fact: the U.S. voting record in the past four presidential elections. People tend to vote for the party they voted for last time. Based on that record, and on the fact that the analysts were almost unanimously wrong in 1948, almost every analysis was filled with caution. Cautions observed, a state-by-state study shows Ike ahead as of a week before election. It also provides a basis from which the election returns on election night can be studied for indications of a national trend either to Stevenson or Eisenhower.

The "Sure" States. The list of "sure" Democratic states is considerably below the traditional number. Eight states with 75 electoral votes, all traditionally Democratic, can be considered sure for Adlai Stevenson. The states (and their electoral votes):

Alabama 11

Arkansas 8

Georgia 12

West Virginia 8

North Carolina 14

Rhode Island 4

Mississippi 8

Kentucky 10

Even this list is challenged. The Associated Press poll of editors, released this week, says Rhode Island is a tossup. Seven states with 43 electoral votes can be listed as "sure" for Eisenhower. They are:

Maine 5

Vermont 3

New Hampshire 4

Kansas 8

Nebraska 6

South Dakota 4

Indiana 13

Inclined to Adlai. Ten states with 101 electoral votes can be listed as leaning to Stevenson. They are:

Arizona 4

Louisiana 10

Missouri 13

Oklahoma 8

Montana 4

Florida 10

Texas 24

Washington 9

South Carolina 8

Tennessee 11

Ike will get a great popular vote in Texas, Louisiana, Florida and South Carolina. But Democratic tradition still gives Stevenson an edge.

Inclined to Ike. Seventeen states with 169 electoral votes seem to be leaning to Ike. They are:

North Dakota 4

Ohio 25

Wisconsin 12

Oregon 6

Colorado 6

Iowa 10

Idaho 4

Nevada 3

Wyoming 3

New Jersey 16

Pennsylvania 32

Maryland 9

Delaware 3

Michigan 20

Connecticut 8

Utah 4

New Mexico 4

Pennsylvania and Michigan may be swayed Democratic on-the don't-let-them-take-it-away issue. Maryland, Delaware and Connecticut look close. In Utah, Ike had a lead but it is being cut.

The Balance. The list of states leaning to Eisenhower, plus his "sure" states, would give him 212 electoral votes. Stevenson's two groups would give him 176.

Necessary to elect: 266. The balance seems to lie with six states which have 143 electoral votes:

California 32

Illinois 27

Massachusetts 16

Minnesota 11

New York 45

Virginia 12

In California polls show Ike with a considerable (but diminishing) lead. The outcome may depend on how vigorous a campaign Governor Warren puts on for the Republican ticket this week.

In Illinois farmers are expected to go a little more strongly for Eisenhower than they did for Dewey, who lost the state by a narrow margin. Although it is Governor Stevenson's home state, Illinois looks too close to put in either camp.

In Massachusetts much depends on how much Eisenhower can cut into the Boston Irish vote on the softness-to-Communism issue. This state is used to intensive last-minute campaigning and late vote switches. As of last week: an edge for Eisenhower.

In Minnesota Ike had a big lead two months ago. Republicans admit he has been slipping. As of last week he seemed still ahead, still slipping.

In New York registration figures and other indicators give Eisenhower an uneasy edge.

In Virginia Senator Harry Byrd's announcement that he would not support Stevenson has made this state look like a 50-50 proposition, perhaps with an edge to Ike.

All this adds up to a highly doubtful but not necessarily a close election. In state after state, analysts say they expect Stevenson to carry by a narrow margin--or Ike to carry by a substantial margin. Nobody is overconfident. In fact, both sides are genuinely afraid of defeat.

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