The Fight for the Senate

If the voters of the U.S. elect Adlai Stevenson President, they will almost certainly elect a Democratic Congress. If they elect Dwight Eisenhower, they will almost certainly elect a Republican House of Representatives. But Eisenhower, if elected, may face a Democratic majority in the Senate. Years ago, when party lines were much more tightly drawn, a hostile Senate would have confronted an incoming administration with a grave problem. In this day, it still matters--but not nearly as much.

The doubtful Republican chance of having an absolute majority in the Senate next year springs out of the Republican sweep of 1946. Nearly all of the seats that are up in the election this year were last filled in 1946. To get enough to win a majority the Republicans would have to win seats that they lost in 1946--and 1946 was the best Republican year since 1928.

Of the 35 Senate seats to be filled this year, 21 are held by Republicans and 14 by Democrats. The present division in the Senate is 49 Democrats, 46 Republicans and one newborn independent (Oregon's Fair-Dealing Wayne Morse, who resigned from the Republican Party last week). Thus, to win control, the Republicans must keep the 21 seats they now hold and win three more. It is doubtful that they can do that short of an Eisenhower landslide that would carry some of the weaker G.O.P. Senate candidates into office.

Sure Republican Seats. Nine of the seats are considered sure for the Republicans. Maine has already had its state contest, elected Governor Frederick G. Payne to the Senate. California nominated Republican Senator William F. Knowland on both the Republican and Democratic tickets. In Nebraska, Senator Hugh Butler is sure of re-election and ex-Governor Dwight Griswold is certain to win the late Kenneth Wherry's unexpired term. Vermont's Ralph Flanders, North Dakota's William Langer and Minnesota's Edward Thye are in no danger. Senators Irving Ives of New York and John Bricker of Ohio are far ahead.

Sure Democratic Seats. Six seats can be considered won by the Democrats. Mississippi's Senator John C. Stennis has no opposition. In Texas, Attorney General Price Daniel got both nominations for Senator Tom Connally's seat. Florida's Spessard L. Holland, Virginia's Harry Byrd and Rhode Island's John O. Pastore are all but certain to be reelected. In Tennessee, Representative Albert Gore won his only battle when he beat veteran Senator Kenneth McKellar in last summer's primary.

The rest of the Senate races will be affected, in varying degree, by the margins Dwight Eisenhower and Adlai Stevenson pile up in the various states.

The best indications available last week showed Republican candidates leading in seven races.

IN DELAWARE, Senator John J. Williams, investigator of the Internal Revenue Bureau (TIME, Oct. 13), has pulled slightly ahead of Lieut. Governor Alexis I. du Pont Bayard.

IN MICHIGAN, Representative Charles E. Potter, a legless World War II veteran, is leading Senator Blair Moody.

IN NEW JERSEY, old (72) Senator H. Alexander Smith, with strong organization support, leads Archibald S. Alexander, former Under Secretary of the Army.

IN PENNSYLVANIA, old (73) Senator Edward Martin, who has never lost an election in 50 years of politics, is leading ex-Federal Judge Guy K. Bard.

IN WISCONSIN, Senator Joe McCarthy, the target of Democratic campaigners in almost every state, is well ahead of Thomas E. Fairchild, former state attorney general.

IN CONNECTICUT, two Senate seats will be filled and the Republicans have a chance to take both. Republican Senator William Purtell, who was appointed to fill the late Brien McMahon's seat until the election, is running against Democratic Senator William Benton. Purtell is ahead. For the remainder of McMahon's term (four years), Democratic Representative A. A. Ribicoff and Republican Prescott Bush are in a neck & neck race.

Democratic candidates appear to be leading in nine races.

IN ARIZONA, Senate Majority Leader

Ernest McFarland is still ahead of chain-store operator Barry Goldwater, the hard-campaigning Republican candidate.

IN KENTUCKY, Democratic Senator Tom Underwood, editor of the Lexington Herald, is slightly ahead of ex-Senator John Sherman Cooper. Cooper is running well ahead of the G.O.P. national ticket.

IN MARYLAND, Democrat George P. Mahoney, a big sand-and-gravel man, is leading Representative James Glenn Beall for Democratic Senator Herbert O'Conor's seat. Eisenhower would have to carry Maryland by a heavy majority to pull Beall in with him.

IN MISSOURI, Stuart Symington, ex-Secretary of the Air Force, is ahead of isolationist Senator James Kem.

IN MONTANA, veteran (five terms) Fair-Dealing Representative Mike Mansfield is leading Republican Senator Zales N. Ecton.

IN NEVADA, Democrat Thomas B. Mechling, a newcomer, is ahead of George W. ("Molly") Malone, despite Democratic Senator Pat McCarran's bolt to support Malone.

IN WASHINGTON, veteran (six terms) Representative Henry M. ("Scoop") Jackson is staying ahead of Senator Harry Cain.

IN WEST VIRGINIA, Democrat Harley M. Kilgore holds a lead over former Senator Chapman Revercomb.

IN WYOMING, Senator Joseph C. O'Mahoney, who ranks seventh in Senate seniority (19 years), has managed to stay ahead of popular Governor Frank A. Barrett.

Four races are so close or so dependent on the presidential contest that they cannot be classified even as leaning to one candidate or the other. The four:

INDIANA: Governor Henry F. Shricker, who nominated Stevenson at the Democratic Convention, is running neck & neck with blatant Senator William Jenner. The deciding factor probably will be how Eisenhower runs in Indiana. Most observers think that if Ike carries the state by more than 80,000 votes he may pull Jenner in.

MASSACHUSETTS : three-term Senator Henry Cabot Lodge, the man who led the Eisenhower campaign through the troublesome months before the Republican Convention, now needs some help from Ike. Lodge, one of the ablest men in Congress, has always been an effective vote-getter. He is being challenged by Representative John Kennedy, 35, member of a famous Massachusetts family, a war hero, a good Congressman and an excellent campaigner. A coolness has developed between Kennedy and some Democratic politicians. Nevertheless, Lodge probably cannot win unless Ike carries Massachusetts by a comfortable margin.

NEW MEXICO: Republican Pat Hurley, Secretary of War under Herbert Hoover, and Senator (for 17 years) Dennis Chavez are running a close race again. Chavez, who barely beat Hurley in 1946, has always had heavy support from the Mexican-American bloc.

UTAH: Senator Arthur V. Watkins, a conservative Republican, is up against Fair-Dealing Representative Walter K. Granger. The race is so close that leaders of both parties hesitate to make claims. Latest polls showed a tie. The result is believed to depend on how Eisenhower and Stevenson run in Utah. The one who carries the state probably will pull his Senator in.

Even if the Republicans should win all their sure seats, plus all that seem to be leaning their way and all the doubtful ones, they would not have a majority.

They would still need four winners in the races where Democratic candidates are leading. If an Eisenhower sweep should develop, the Republicans might win seats in Wyoming, Nevada, Washington, Montana and Maryland.

For practical purposes, the exact number of Republicans and Democrats is important only when it comes to organizing the Senate. After committee chairmanships and other assignments are handed out, some of the Republicans (e.g., North Dakota's Langer) promptly begin to vote like Democrats and some of the Democrats (e.g., Virginia's Byrd) vote like Republicans.

In the past 20 years, the Democrats have had a majority in Congress for all but two years (1947-48). Nevertheless, the working coalition of Republicans and Southern Democrats which began to operate in the Senate in 1937 has stymied much of the Democratic legislation program. Whichever party wins control ol Congress, the coalition will still be of more importance than formal party alignments.

This file is automatically generated by a robot program, so reader's discretion is required.