Change In the Weather

Everybody was talking about the weather, and its effect on sales had many a businessman worried. Over much of the U.S. last week hung a mass of unseasonably warm air that was making people forget that winter--and Christmas--are almost at hand. The latest warm spell was just a part of what has proved in many sections of the country to be one of the mildest falls on record.

In Chicago, Sears Roebuck reported that its October sales were 7.8% below last year's. Said Chairman Robert E. Wood: "This unseasonable weather has caused a perceptible slump in many fall and winter lines." Montgomery Ward's sales were down 15.5%. In New York, where a six-day, eye-burning "smaze"* added to the buying apathy, the fur business was down 20%; oil companies cut prices of heating oils by 1/2-c- a gallon to boost lagging sales. Anthracite men noted sadly that their sales so far this year were down by about 25%.

Are winters generally getting warmer? The U.S. Weather Bureau has found that they are. In the last 50 years, average winter temperatures in the U.S. have risen about two degrees. Last week Standard Oil of New Jersey reported that it has also found that winters are getting warmer, after an analysis of temperatures in 30 cities for the last 50 years. Measured in terms of a degree-day unit,* the standard in the oil industry for estimating fuel-oil needs, Jersey Standard found that winters are "running about 4% warmer," and that "the long-term trend is to milder winters.'' In the coal and oil industries, such figures are important. A temperature one degree above normal every day of the heating season throughout the country can mean an annual sales drop of 25 million barrels of furnace oil.

Many an industry is already in step with the changes caused by warmer winters. In the clothing industry, the standard weight of men's suitings before the war was 14 to 15 oz. a yd.; now, few such weights are produced. In 1940, more than 3,000,000 heavy overcoats for men were sold; last year the figure was down to a million.

Furriers also blame the weatherman for falling sales, and have taken action to combat the slump. Instead of full-length coats, they now emphasize smaller pieces, such as stoles, short jackets and neckpieces, which can be worn on warm days. They have also put fur to work in earrings, cuff links, sweaters and even bow ties. Said Executive Secretary Irving Genfan of the New York Master Furriers Guild: "We're putting fur on everything except fur."

*New York's Air Pollution Control laboratory coinage, meaning smoke plus haze. *When the average temperature during the day is below 65DEG, each degree of the drop is called a degree day. Thus, a 24-hr, period during which the average temperature is 50DEG measures 15 degree days.

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