The Color Gamble

Out from Washington last week flashed the news that the TV industry has been waiting to hear. After several years of hearings, the Federal Communications Commission finally gave the go-ahead to the industry's new compatible color-TV system (TIME, Oct. 26). Within minutes of the FCC decision, the big networks were on the air with color programs; both NBC and CBS announced plans to start beaming regular programs soon. Among the first: Amahl & the Night Visitors on Christmas Day, the Rose Bowl Parade on Jan. 1.

The set manufacturers were less enthusiastic. Though TV fans will be able to watch color programs in black & white on their current sets, it may be years before most Americans see color TV.

Known Problems. The set-manufacturing industry has been trying to bring color along as carefully as possible, and no one wants to rush into production without first testing the ground ahead. Three years ago, when FCC approved CBS's whirling-disk system of color TV, the industry shied away because it was noncompatible, i.e., it couldn't be seen on black & white sets. Manufacturers refused to make sets, and CBS was glad to drop the project when the Korean war put restrictions on color-set manufacture. The industry set up a National Television System Committee headed by General Electric Vice President Dr. Walter R. G. Baker, and put it to work finding a better system. The result is the current color system, which is built around an all-electronic tube and is fully compatible with black & white receivers. Furthermore, the industry committee has set up a whole series of standards for compatible color. Thus, the door is wide open for any and all tubemakers to come in with new and better color tubes.

Color TV in 1954 will be nothing more than a sample. Says Committee Chairman Baker: "It may be years before mass production is achieved." Baker estimates the figure for 1954 at about 75,000 sets; some other TV experts say 150,000, but all agree that mass production will not come on the market until 1956 "or later. RCA predicts that it will take at least six months to tool up for its first sets; Admiral, Motorola and Philco will make only a handful in 1954, hardly enough to supply demonstration sets for the thousands of U.S. TV dealers.

One big factor is cost. The sets will cost between $700 and $1,000 for a 12-in. screen in a console cabinet half again as large as current black & white sets. The color receiver alone will have almost three times as many parts as regular tubes, and the tube itself will cost $200 for a 12-in. screen, v. $24.75 for current 21-in. black & white tubes.

The Unknown Factor. Mass production will take some of the curse off color TV's high price, but just how much no one knows. While Emerson Radio President Benjamin Abrams confidently expects that color sets will drop to within 25% of black & white in 18 months. Magnavox President Frank Freimann thinks the price will never be comparable.

For the booming TV industry, color is a great gamble, since no one knows how it will go over. Most experts see color as an addition to black & white TV, hope that both can survive side by side. But TV itself fooled everybody. The industry expected only a limited, upper-income market; instead, the biggest buyers were low-income families, who found a whole new field of cheap home entertainment.

The experts may be wrong again. In the last six months, the mere promise of color TV has upset the black & white TV market. If buyers snap up the first sets and continue to clamor for color, then manufacturers will not be able to go slow. Like it or not, TV makers will have to concentrate on color and hope that the fast changeover does not demoralize the industry.

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