Possibilities for Friction

The only way the West can win the cold war, said Spanish Dictator Francisco Franco in an interview with Newspaper Editor Roy Howard last week, is to slap an immediate embargo on all trade with Russia and her satellites. Franco's proposal found informal support in a surprising place: among the Far Eastern experts in the U.S. State Department.

In Asia, their argument runs, an embargo would really hurt. "Take China," said one specialist. "A large amount of her industry is based on British and U.S. machinery installed before the Communists took over. China needs parts and replacements for those industrial units. Cut off all exports to Communist countries and China wouldn't be able to get such replacements, nor would her Communist allies be able to get them for her.

"China would probably turn for help to Russia, or possibly East Germany or Czechoslovakia. Possibly they could meet the Chinese requests. But in meeting those requests, the Russians or Germans or Czechs would have to devote time and manpower and raw materials to the Chinese, thus affecting their own industrial programs. Under such circumstances, we think frictions would . . . develop."

State's policymakers for Europe are more cautious. They are inclined to agree with Foreign Operations Administrator Harold Stassen, who claims that European allies like Britain, France and Germany must be able to trade behind the Iron Curtain if their economies are to be kept healthy. To this the Far Eastern experts reply: "We are not positive that such tightened blockades would aggravate Communist troubles, but we think that such a course offers more possibility of developing friction among Communist countries than will ever be developed by trading with them."

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