$6,180 a Year for tne Average Family

WHAT kind of U.S. economy will a youngster now getting ready for college find when he gets out? What is the prospect for 1960?

Last week, in America's Needs and Resources: A New Survey, a Twentieth Century Fund research staff headed by Economist J. Frederic Dewhurst issued a 1,148-page statistical description of the present economy, plus a projection of what the U.S. would be like five years hence. Dewhurst's key prediction, on the assumption that U.S. peace arid prosperity will continue, is that 1960's gross national product will be $413.5 billion, up 29% from 1950, 16% from 1954. The U.S., with less than 7% of the world's population, already produces one-third of all the world's goods and services, almost one-half of all its factory products. U.S. total output in the 19403 was worth $2.9 trillion; for the 1950s $4.1 trillion is expected.

The forecasts are speculative at best, but in their widely read first survey, made during the 1940s, Dewhurst and associates erred on the conservative side, forecasting 1950's G.N.P. 7% below what it turned out to be.

POPULATION

The economy's predicted growth of 29% during the 1950s is based on population growth during the decade of 16% and a 12% growth in the labor force.

Among 1960's 177 million people will be 40% more five-to nine-year-olds than in 1950, 54% more 10-to 14-year-olds, 35% more oldsters over 70, but 12% fewer 25-to 29-year-olds (the Depression babies). In 1960 there will be 42 million schoolchildren, 50% more than in 1950. The present decade's marriages, down 20% from the 1940s, will create only 13.7% more families. The trend to the suburbs will continue during the decade; rural non-farm population will burgeon by more than one-third, to 43 million. California in 1960 will have a population of 14.6 million, a jump of 38.3% over 1950.

PRODUCTIVITY

By 1960 there will be 69 million jobs, 7.5 million more than in 1950. A drop of 2.3 hours in the non-farm workweek will put the average worker on a 36.5-hour week, but his productivity, while it can hardly match the last decade's 47% rise, is expected to be up 25%. National income per man-hour worked will be $2.68 (v. last year's $2.41).

FARMERS

By 1960, 6,700,000 farmers, only 9.3% of the labor force and 670,000 fewer than in 1950, will have brought into cultivation 35 million acres of new crop land. They will produce 21% more food, but work only 44 hours a week, three less than in 1950.

WEALTH

In 1960 individuals will be saving a smaller portion (5.5%) of their disposable income than they do today (7.7%). But gross private savings (including corporate) will have climbed 33% in the decade, to $62.5 billion, v. $52.8 billion last year. Gross capital investment will also be $62.5 billion in 1960, up a healthy 37% from 1954.

INCOME

Spendable per-household income in 1960 will reach a comfortable $5,600 a year, up 5% from 1954. Before-tax income per household will be $6,180. The tax bite will ease. While government costs will rise 15%, they will be paid for by soaring revenues from prosperous businesses. Personal taxes will drop from today's $32.9 billion to $29.6 billion. Social Security benefits will more than treble during the decade, reaching $4.4 billion in 1960.

SPENDING

U.S. consumers will be spending 24.1% more in 1960 than they were spending in 1950. Some of the biggest jumps will be in "luxury" items. With rising living standards, the nation's food bill would normally be expected to drop in proportion to total spending. Instead, it will precisely equal the 24.1% pace set in all spending. Reason: the U.S. housewife is buying more packaged and processed foods, and families are dining out more often. (The real significance of the ratio of food bills to total spending is a cut in the housewife's workweek.)

In 1960 Americans will eat 10% more citrus fruits and tomatoes than in 1950, 11% less nuts, dry beans and peas. Outlays for "participant recreation" will be up 36.3%. This rise chiefly reflects the boom in pari-mutuel betting and pinball and slot-machine playing (whose net receipts more than trebled in a decade, to $419 million in 1952). Contributions to political and civic organizations will climb 45.8%. Buying of jewelry and watches will be up 37.2%, foreign travel 53.7%, medical insurance 60.6%, private schooling 101.4%, and airline travel 187.4%. The nation's highways will teem with 59 million cars, 47% more than in 1950. Looking farther ahead, in 1975 the U.S. will be generating 1,400 billion kw-h of electric power, 3 1/2 times 1950's output. Also in that year, it will use 200 billion gallons of fresh water every day, 2 1/2 times 1950's consumption.

NEEDS

Dewhurst's researchers attempted to calculate how much more money would have to be spent to reach a "standard of living at a health and decency level." This concept is hard to pin down, even in societies with lower economic levels. With Americans it is all the more conjectural because an adequate supply of TV sets and pinball machines is harder to determine than an adequate diet level. Nevertheless, the economists figured that 1950's gap between needs and supply--$13.1 billion, or 6% of expenditures--would be slashed to $11.4 billion in 1960, only 4% of expenditures. The figures showed changes in types of shortage. Housing accounted for 30% of 1950's unavailable needs, only 12% of 1960's But more than half of the 1960 gap will be a shortage of medical care, v. 36% in 1950.

FOREIGN TRADE

The survey forecasts a major shift in the nation's foreign-trade position: 1960's imports will exceed exports. Europe will continue to be troubled with a dollar deficit, but the rest of the world will enjoy a dollar surplus.

Although imports will rise less than gross national product, they will reach $11 billion in 1960, a 26% gain during the decade. Biggest gainers will be bauxite (up 97.5%), crude oil (up 103%) and iron ore (up 300%). Biggest losers: tin (down 5%), wool (down 10%). Assuming that foreign aid ends, exports will edge up only 1%, but they will all be paid for. U.S. capital outflow will have doubled.

TECHNOLOGY

Are Americans prosperous simply because they stumbled upon a fabulous lode of natural resources? The book quotes the late Economist Wesley Mitchell, who pointed out that American Indians "lived in a poverty-stricken environment. For them, no coal existed, no petroleum, no metals beyond nuggets of pure copper . . . A precarious food supply, flimsy housing, mystical medicine and chronic warfare limited the increase in numbers." Says Dewhurst: "Technology, in fact, can be thought of as the primary resource; without it all other resources would be economically nonexistent . . . Technological progress during the past century, especially since 1900, appears to have been more rapid in the U.S. than anywhere else in the world." Looking ahead, Dewhurst makes a vivid prediction: in the year 2050 a worker will produce in one seven-hour day what takes today's man a 40-hour week.

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