The Changed Structure

In midweek, Pollster George Gallup disclosed the results of his latest survey. It showed Dwight Eisenhower then leading Adlai Stevenson by 61% to 39%, as against a 55%-45% ratio in 1952's election. Since Democrats conceded an Eisenhower candidacy in 1956 as highly probable, the Gallup poll was merely another evidence of an already-clear political fact: that the chances of the Democratic Party for next year were poor.

Right up to the moment that the announcement of the President's illness was made, the entire structure of political relationships was based on the assumption that Eisenhower would run--and win. The instant that assumption changed, so did the relationships, both between Democrats and Republicans and between Democrats and Democrats.

In their posture toward Republican Eisenhower, the Democrats, while standing ready to exploit any breakdown in his popularity, had devoted their efforts toward maintaining control of Congress, mostly by trying to show that they could get along better with Ike than could his fellow Republicans. This was an abnormal political relationship--now ended. The strong possibility that the President will not run again is an obvious cue for the Democrats to return to a more normal, and more aggressive, pattern of inter-party behavior.

Building a Team. The Democrat most obviously affected by the changed situation is Adlai Stevenson, now 55, the 1952 nominee and the party's present front runner. While Stevenson himself was vacationing in Jamaica recently, his followers were in full swing. Chicago Attorney Stephen Mitchell, former Democratic National Chairman, was spending a third of his time politicking for Stevenson --and giving free rein to his own ambition to be governor of Illinois. One of Mitchell's law partners, Hy Raskin, was working full-time on behalf of Stevenson.

William Blair, Stevenson's law partner, putting together a paid team of writers, researchers and braintrusters, last week revealed that he has hired Harry Ashmore, the Fair-Dealing executive editor of the Arkansas Gazette, as Stevenson's chief pressagent.

In a confident--and perhaps overconfident--frame of mind, the Stevenson men had already counted their convention delegates. They decided that they already had enough votes (about 600), including reasonably solid delegations from Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Indiana, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Arizona. Rhode Island, New Jersey, North Carolina, West Virginia, Arkansas, Mississippi, Kansas, Oregon, Missouri and Michigan. Already thinking about vice-presidential possibilities, the Stevensonites had also concluded that they did not want Alabama's Senator John Sparkman, who, they felt, was dead weight on the 1952 ticket.

But the fact of Eisenhower's illness obviously required a recalculation of Stevenson's chances: a multiplicity of candidates, including favorite sons hoping for real lightning to strike, would almost certainly appear.

Off to the Fight. Another Democrat whose prospects take on a different shape is New York's Governor Averell Harriman. Although he has publicly insisted that he is for Stevenson, the fact that Harriman is a candidate is not in doubt. Early last week New York State Chairman Michael H. Prendergast told newsmen that Harriman, if he is "convinced the convention wants him," will seek the nomination even though it means a floor fight with Stevenson. Added Prendergast: Stevenson "isn't going to stampede anybody." Two nights later, to underline the Harriman push, Tammany Hall Boss Carmine De Sapio lavishly entertained some 50 Democratic bigwigs from a dozen states, e.g., Missouri's Senator Stuart Symington (not without presidential hopes himself), Rhode Island Governor Dennis Roberts, Pittsburgh Mayor and Democratic Leader David Lawrence. After dinner at Manhattan's "21," De Sapio hustled all his guests off to ringside seats (top price, $40) at the Marciano-Moore heavyweight championship fight in Yankee Stadium.

But despite the activity in the Harriman camp, at week's end one figure appeared in bright red ink on his political books: he is 63, only one year younger than Dwight Eisenhower, and age will be a factor next year as rarely before.

Attrition in Primaries. Tennessee's Senator Estes Kefauver is not loved by the party leaders, but he has demonstrated what he can do in preferential primaries, which next year will be held in some 20 states. Last week Kefauver was in Yugoslavia, shaking hands with Marshal Tito. But back home, there were encouraging signs: a newspaper poll of Maryland's Democratic leaders showed they preferred Kefauver to Stevenson; his followers in California, where he won heavily in the 1952 primary, were itching to enter his name in the 1956 contest.

If Democrats Stevenson and Harriman cannot avoid entering primaries against Estes Kefauver, he might beat them, striking hard at their hopes for the nomination, as Wendell Willkie's chances for renomination were wrecked when Tom Dewey defeated him in the 1944 Wisconsin primary. In that case, the field would be wide open.

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