The Nuclear Revolution

"The foreign market for power reactors may represent a $30 billion market." This was but one of the glowing promises held out by Congress' Joint Committee on Atomic Energy this week, in the first complete official survey on the peaceful uses of atomic energy. Even though the report was hedged with plenty of ifs, it still put the U.S.-and perhaps the rest of the world-at the brink of a startling revolution in electric power, agriculture and industrial production.

Biggest handicap to progress in the peaceful uses of atomic energy, said the report, is Government-imposed secrecy. It recommended that the Atomic Energy Commission "remove all reactor technology from the restricted data category, including such areas as fuel element fabrication and processing techniques," and keep secret only the military applications of atomic energy. As it is, private enterprise lacks the information on which it can make intelligent decisions, e.g., a utility might invest heavily in a nuclear-fission power plant when AEC is sitting on the facts about a better system.

Guiding spirit of the top-level, nine-man citizens' committee that put together the report was New Mexico Publisher (the Santa Fe New Mexican) Robert M. Mc-Kinney, 45, who was tapped for the job because of his longtime friendship with Senator Clinton Anderson, Joint Committee chairman. A corporation director (Rock Island Railroad, International Telephone & Telegraph) and cattle breeder (Aberdeen Angus) but no scientist, Bob McKinney set his task forces to work ten months ago, organized 15 discussion groups of specialists, launched 50 special studies, interviewed 327 top experts in science, industry, agriculture, medicine.

The report punctured such dreams as the atomic automobile (it would weigh 100,000 Ibs.), the atomic airliner (shielding passengers would add too much weight) and the atomic locomotive (no better than a diesel). But in the field of industrial application, the atom's prospects seemed almost limitless. Almost every major U.S. tobacco company, the report stated, already uses a radioisotope gauge to check cigarette quality, and at least 350 companies use radioisotopes to look for flaws in welded joints and metal castings. By investing $1,000,000 yearly in radioisotopes, U.S. industry is saving $100 million yearly in production costs. Production managers have discovered that $100 worth of radioactive cobalt-60 will do the work of $20,000 worth of radium. By 1980 atomic radiation may also provide 10% of U.S. industry's "process heat," e.g., to refine ore into metal, make glass, crack oil, etc.

Industry by industry, the McKinney committee ticked off the biggest changes to come.

Atomic Power. The seven nuclear power plants now abuilding or blocked out "on blueprints will produce less than 800,000 kw. by 1960 v. some 160 million kw. from conventional plants. But by 1965 atomic power could be competitive in cost with conventional plants, and by 1980 atomic-power capacity may soar to 135 million kw., 20% of the nation's total. The panel's forecast for atomic-power equipment sales from 1960-80: $27 billion. However, the overall U.S. demand for electric power will climb so fast that conventional power plants will also expand.

Mining. Despite predictions that thorium will displace uranium as the primary fuel for nuclear power plants, the committee said that both will be needed. But the committee raised a warning flag against overexpansion in uranium mining and milling. "If military requirements fall off during the early part of the forecast growth of atomic power, a surplus over civilian needs may exist." The committee recommended that AEC ease off on uranium ore-buying, let uranium find its natural price in a free market.

Agriculture. The committee forecast a worldwide revolution that will boost farm productivity and lower costs. Radiation has been used to breed high-yield barleys, leaf-spot-resistant peanuts; radioisotope tracers have shown the way to more effective use of fertilizers.

Food Preservation. Radiation may prove itself a cheap and convenient method to kill bugs in stored grain. Army Quartermaster tests show that radiation will also cut spoilage in onions and potatoes, preserve bread, chicken, pork and some vegetables without refrigeration, extend the refrigerated shelf life of beef and lamb as much as ten times. In five to 20 years food radiation will be a sizable industry.

Medicine. Atomic diagnosis and treatment of cancer will so prolong life that the U.S. must dump its theory that a working life ends at 65.

Shipping. The committee saw little prospect for atomic dry-cargo freighters or passenger liners. Because of long layovers in ports, the savings in fuel would not offset the bigger cost. But huge oil tankers, which turn around fast, would find atomic power profitable. If the Maritime Administration is ready to subsidize atomic tankers as replacements for all the big, U.S.-owned tankers that will become obsolescent by 1965, the atomic-propulsion industry can expect $3 billion in orders from shipbuilders alone.

Again and again the committee came back to its biggest point: AEC should share its nuclear knowledge with private companies, even set up its own "alert, forward-looking" special staff to shift as much emphasis to the peaceful atom as has so far been placed on the bomb. Both for good business and good international relations, the committee proposed that the U.S. set up a definite timetable for the delivery of nuclear power plants, which backward nations need far more than the U.S. Said the committee: "Atomic power may be the most tangible symbol of America's will to peace through the peaceful atom."

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