Shaky Premise, Fervent Prayer

Most Democrats pin their hopes for a presidential victory in November on a premise and a prayer. The premise: labor, hard core of party strength for two decades, will hold firm. The prayer: enough farmers, upset over falling income, will switch to the Democratic candidate to ensure him the White House.

Last week Opinion Pollster George Gallup released soundings on the two assumptions. From coast to coast, union members and farmers were asked to express presidential preference in a trial heat between Stevenson and Eisenhower. For Democrats the labor response was chilling. Between the 1936 and 1948 elections, less than 30% of union members went Republican. In 1952 Eisenhower got 39%. Last week's survey, apparently reflecting a feeling of rank-and-file wellbeing, gave Ike a clear majority--56%.

But the Democrats could still pray. The farm vote for Eisenhower, overwhelming (67%) in 1952, has dropped appreciably --to 61%. Said Soothsayer Gallup of the trends: "While Republicans will cheer [the President's] impressive labor gains, Democrats can take heart from the fact that the farm vote shows signs of moving away from the Republicans."

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