Wait Till '60?

Some U.S. businessmen do not believe that the economy will turn upward in 1958. Last week Walter E. Hoadley Jr., treasurer of Armstrong Cork Co. and a top building-industry economist, gave his reasons for this view to the New York Society of Security Analysts. Said Hoadley: "I do not see evidence of a quick upturn." The recession will last "through 1960. It is more than a rolling readjustment."

Hoadley called the recession "an interim" between the great boom that ended last summer and another great boom that he expects will begin in the early 1960s. "It is likely to be difficult," he said, "to come out of this very rapidly." His reasons: 1) the artificial backlog of pent-up postwar demand has been satisfied; 2) the population boom is over for at least five years because of the low Depression-years' birth rate; 3) expenditures for new plants and equipment are likely to continue downward because of the nation's already large productive capacity; 4) consumer attitudes toward installment buying have changed ("It is popular now to avoid debt").

What is needed now, said Hoadley, is to restore confidence in the U.S. economy. He called for new incentives to the public to begin buying hard goods again "for their own selfish good" and tangible evidences of business improvement that go beyond a seasonal pickup. Most of all, the public must get the feeling that the worst is over or that, at least, it will not be too bad. "We are not being pessimistic, but realistic. The greatest possible danger is a secondary shock wave later this year or in 1959 when the good news fails to come in."

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