End to the Recession?

"The upturn in business is now a fact and not just an expectation," said FORTUNE this week in its monthly report on the U.S. economy. It is no longer a question of touching bottom--that happened some weeks ago. The question now is how fast the recovery will spread. "Even the incomplete data for the second quarter add up unequivocally to more than a seasonal gain." Not only did defense outlays and public works shoot ahead, but housing, car sales and production of steel, lumber, apparel, aircraft, petroleum were all on the upgrade. The FRB index of production, which rose a point in May, will probably be up another point for June, said FORTUNE. "Together, these gains add up to an all-around recovery." FORTUNE'S predictions through 1959: the gross national product will rise $50 billion to $470 billion by the end of 1959, while production will jump 20 points from 128 last quarter to 148 on FRB's index. Both will be new records, "with a wider margin in G.N.P. over past peaks owing to great and steady expansion in services, which have not declined in the recession."

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