The New Cars

Everyone agrees that the recession has just about run its course. But before anyone draws an easy breath, he wants to see what will happen to the automobile industry this fall.

This week, without contracts and with a vague strike threat in the air, furloughed Detroit workers were back on the assembly line, putting together cars for a new and hopefully better model year. Down the line with a clatter came the first 19595. Buick was slated to start first; four Chrysler divisions--Dodge, De Soto, Chrysler and Imperial--planned to tailgate close behind. Chevrolet and Plymouth were both to close out their 1958 model runs, quickly move new dies into place for 1959. Only Ford held aloof, will produce 1958 Mercurys, Fords, Lincolns and Edsels through August.

Year to Forget. As matters stood, 1958 was a year Detroit's automakers would like to forget. The worst year in recent history saw production plummet 30% from 1957's 6,212,000 cars to a projected 4,326,700 (see box). Sales were down 28% to the lowest point since 1949.

By now Detroit was through alibiing for '58. It knew all the reasons by heart: the recession, the loss of car prestige (and keeping up with the Joneses in other ways), high prices, too much chrome, those foreign cars, lack of salesmanship, etc., etc.

Having learned 1958's lessons, the industry made some major decisions for 1959. In general:

P: Restyling is widespread (at a total cost of $750 million). Main points: The fins win; they stay, flaring upward and outward. Chrome will be a little less glittering, and hung on cars stretching wider, lower and longer than any before. P: The horsepower race is apparently over; increases will be generally small. P: That much talked about "Detroit small car?" At least a year away, though there may be a push on six-cylinder economy models.

Masonic Secrecy. The model changes, as usual, were treated with the secrecy of a Masonic initiation. But it was an open secret that only Cadillac and Lincoln will be content with a minor facelift. Chevrolet has a completely new rear end. The rounded gull-wing tail is gone, replaced by outflaring V-shaped fins. General Motors' 1959 Chevy will also be lower, has a big increase in glass area, new grille and bumpers.

Ford will have new bumpers and fenders, more pronounced fins, round instead of oval tail lights. The grille is new to avoid last year's cheese-grater effect. The new Ford look: "quiet refinement."

Plymouth will replace 1958's notched,

jetlike tail fin with a smooth flare, is

adding a new grille, huge bumpers at

front and rear.

De Soto will have a forward-sloping hood, lower front fenders, new grille, bumpers and trunk lid. Dodge, Chrysler and Imperial will get much the same "dart" treatment.

Edsel has a wider, lower look, though the purse-mouthed grille remains. Prices: closer to Ford to reduce competition with Mercury.

Pontiac will be longer, lower, will sprout tail fins. Headlights will be more widely spaced; the scooped-out rear fenders will now be convex.

Demand Backlog. If U.S. car buyers approve, Detroit's automakers see a banner year ahead (see below). The economy is picking up steam, giving potential car buyers confidence to unlock their savings. Economists figure the average age of the U.S. auto on the road at 5 1/2 years, a healthy old age that should create a huge unfilled backlog of demand. One result of the recession is that consumers have concentrated on paying off old cars, shied away from adding new debts (see chart). Last year Detroit estimated that 1957 repayments would add 1,000,000 potential customers to its 1958 market; most of those customers are still waiting, joined by many thousands more who paid off their cars this year.

One thing that could hold back a real sales rise is price. The industry desperately wants to hold the line. But with wages and other costs rising steadily, everyone expects still another round of price increases. Best estimate: a $50 to $175 hike, depending on model. The big question is whether the U.S. public, which has stoically watched prices rise with the fins, will part with that much more to buy a new car.

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