Birthday Message

The president of the world's biggest industrial company was 65, and the citizens of Flint, Mich, gathered to do him honor. As General Motors' Harlow Curtice waited in the wings of Flint's Industrial Mutual Association auditorium, an orchestra played You, Gee, But You're Wonderful, You, and colored balloons floated above the linen-covered tables. Then up stepped Curtice, the very model of a modern American optimist, with some cheery predictions for the future. Said Curtice, who has been more often right than wrong: In 1959 the auto industry will sell about 5,500.000 cars (v. an estimated 4,300,000 in '58), which in turn will "start a chain reaction throughout the whole economy. I should expect a further increase in the gross national product in the fourth quarter, and that this improvement would gather momentum through 1959."

The uptrend, said G.M.'s boss, has already begun. Industrial production has recovered from the April low; housing starts, retail sales, Government expenditures and personal income are all moving up (see below). And for the longer term --by 1965--Curtice was even more optimistic. Reasons:

P: A rise in gross national product from $428 billion to $600 billion. P: A rise in households from 50 million to 56 million.

P: A rise of one-third in disposable personal income to a total $420 billion. P: A rise of 46% (to 11 million) in the number of families with two or more cars. P: A rise of two-thirds (to 13 million) in households with incomes of $7,500 annually.

Concluded Curtice: "By 1965 it is reasonable to assume that the demand for new passenger cars will be in the area of 8,000,000 units annually."

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