Transistor Transition

No postwar industry has grown faster than electronics, and no electronic devices have paid off more handsomely than semiconductors--the tiny, spiderlike transistors, diodes, rectifiers that perform the functions of vacuum tubes. Though semiconductor technology is scarcely a decade old, industry sales have climbed from $15 million in 1954 to an estimated $195 million this year; electronics experts think they will be $350 million in 1960, more than $1 billion in 1967.

Wall Street is well aware of electronics' rapid growth, pays as much as 40 and 50 times earnings for what it calls "Buck Rogers stocks." Eager buyers this year boosted Texas Instruments from 26 3/4 to 86, Raytheon from 22 to 62 5/8, Fairchild Camera from 18 7/8 to 64 3/4, General Transistor from 17 to 51. But to many Wall Streeters, even such high prices seem cheap when sales and earnings are zooming. Explains one broker: "Current earnings are already past history. If you want to participate in growth, you have to pay for it."

So fast is the field growing that a new development or refinement is announced almost weekly. Last week Texas Instruments began manufacturing a germanium "mesa" transistor; this week General Electric starts full production of a controlled rectifier that can handle a greater power load than a transistor.

New Customers. The growth has been stimulated by the opening of new markets. The first transistors replaced vacuum tubes in consumer devices--hearing aids, portable radios, etc. Now transistors and other semiconductor cousins are manufactured with such precision and close tolerances that a new generation of computers is being designed for them. The circuitry of new missile systems, where space and weight are at a premium, calls for millions of semiconductors. Industrial and military uses account for only one-third of semiconductor units manufactured, but two-thirds of dollar volume. Computer builders are expected to increase their purchase of semiconductors tenfold within the next two years.

Computer builders prefer semiconductors to vacuum tubes because they are 99.9% reliable, v. 80% to 95% in a comparable tube, have a much longer life, take far less space, and require less power. Since a single modern computer may have 25,000 tubes, the repair time saved is immense.

Baby Giants. Some of the giants of the electronics industry--RCA, General Electric, Sylvania--have dominated the market in transistors for consumer applications, which do not demand close tolerances. But several smaller companies, such as General Transistor and Transitron, have taken the lead in many high-quality semiconductors. Biggest in this field is Texas Instruments (TIME, April 8, 1957), whose sales have been growing at 30% a year, this year will hit $90 million. Hughes Aircraft, which geared up in 1954 to produce semiconductors for its own fire-control systems, now sells $15 million to $20 million worth per year. General Transistor is an even more remarkable example of how fast an electronics company can grow. The company was formed in 1954 by Electronics Engineer Herman Fialkov, 36, with only $105,000. He disregarded the advice that only the giant firms could hold a market, specialized in computer transistors. He sold $1,100,000 in 1956, $3,300,000 in 1957, expects to sell $5,500,000 this year, at least $8,000,000 next year, net at least $800,000. Though transistors have scarcely got their start in the second generation of computers, several firms are already at work on semiconductors for a third generation: silicon diodes, which serve as amplifiers at microwave frequencies, can help a computer in a missile system to arrive at its answer even faster than existing transistors.

The Quick & the Dead. Such rapid changes make mortality in the industry high. Of 81 companies that entered the field since the discovery of the transistor ten years ago, 50 have given up or are slipping fast, and only a dozen or so are vigorous competitors. Eventually, electronics experts expect a shakeout down to six or seven major producers. "We expect it," says General Transistors' Fialkov, "and we expect to be one of the survivors. There will always be a market for smaller specialty producers, because only one or two companies manufacture the same type of transistor."

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