Communism on the Defensive

Communism is moving ahead on all fronts and will win a "complete and final victory" throughout the world, boasted Nikita Khrushchev last week. This cock-a-doodle-doo reflected his own characteristic buoyancy, as well as the pseudo-scientific Communist theory of inevitability. But the facts of world politics, A.D. 1959, make no such reflection.

In Western Europe, Communist strength is down. In the Middle East, Arab nationalism is for the first time beginning to show substantial misgivings about Communism's brotherly support. Not long ago those Misters In-Between--Nehru, Nasser and Tito--were neutral in Moscow's favor; now they all have their doubts.

North Africa is in rebellion, black Africa is astir; dictators fell in Latin America, but though in each case Communists intrigued, they have nowhere prevailed.

In the vast land and island mass of Asia, the newly independent nations have been beset by inefficiency, corruption and tired blood in their leadership. The rise of nationalism and the retreat of colonialism give Communism a great opportunity, which it tirelessly exploits.

In Southeast Asia, where these portents seemed especially clear, armed Communist insurrections in recent years were narrowly put down in Malaya, Indonesia, Burma and the fragmented states carved from French Indo-China.

What remains there is still chaotic. But last week two of TIME'S correspondents, James Bell and Paul Hurmuses, who have been crossing and recrossing Southeast Asia, found a common thread in many dissimilar situations: Communism, instead of being triumphantly on the march, is on the defensive in Southeast Asia. A country-by-country checklist:

Burma. Three months after able General Ne Win took over the premiership and dismissed the Parliament, the capital city of Rangoon seems a different place. Gone are the huge heaps of filthy garbage that littered the streets, and gone the packs of wild pye-dogs that fed on them. Buildings are getting their first coats of paint since 1941. Night trains are running from Rangoon to Mandalay for the first time in ten years, attesting to greater security in the countryside. Virtually every known Communist agent and subversive has been jailed. Hordes of corrupt, bribetaking political hacks have been replaced by army officers. The new emphasis on agriculture instead of impractical steel plants has resulted in the nation's biggest postwar rice crop. The previously soaring cost of food was solved overnight by raids on warehouses that proved heavily stocked with hoarded goods. Currently, Burma's greatest problem results from the thousands of Chinese fleeing across its borders to escape the iron grip of the people's communes.

Thailand. The open seizure of power by Field Marshal Sarit Thanarat last October has had in Thailand much the same revivifying effect as Ne Win's takeover in Burma. Sarit, who is not in the best of health, seems to have gone through a moral regeneration. He has ordered the end of legalized opium dens; closed 27 Communist or pro-Communist newspapers and magazines; cracked down on hoodlum-run labor unions as well as three shakedown organizations formerly run by the police, and in a final burst of virtue ordered nightclubs to close at midnight. There was a time not long past when Sarit closed nightclubs in another way-- as the last customer. He has concentrated on a new constitution with Gaullist overtones, a new law to encourage foreign investment, and on measures to bring down the cost of living (in one month alone the index fell 12.7 points). Fortnight ago he banned all imports from Communist China. Few Thailanders seem disturbed by Sarit's end of the parliamentary regime. "Hell," said one Thai recently, "we are saving $750,000 a year in salaries alone. We used to pay members of Parliament that to steal us blind."

South Viet Nam. Under President Ngo Dinh Diem, Viet Nam remains stoutly antiCommunist. Despite nearly five years of heavy U.S. economic and military aid --currently amounting to about 75% of the nation's budget--it often opposes U.S. attitudes and policy with a proud nationalism all its own. Viet Nam seems securely under the control of the President and his family: one of his brothers is regarded as the grey eminence behind the President, another is an influential Roman Catholic bishop, a third the governor of central Viet Nam. His pretty sister-in-law, Madame Ngo (TIME, Jan. 26), has little difficulty "persuading" her fellow Deputies in the Assembly to do as she says--no one dares oppose her. Continually threatened by Ho Chi Minh's Communist North Viet Nam, President Diem rules strongly, spends more money on jails than on schools. South Viet Nam must be scored a pro-Western country with authoritarian overtones. But in 1954, when Indo-China was carved up, few gave it any hope at all of surviving.

Cambodia. Still the most neutralist of all Southeast Asian nations, Cambodia accepts aid missions from the U.S., Russia, Red China and France. Its leader, Prince Sihanouk, is involved in continual quarrels with his ancient rivals and neighbors, Thailand and South Viet Nam; he is a man of unpredictable temperament, highly excitable and stubborn. As a result of a visit to the U.S. last September, Sihanouk is now impressed with everything American, from soda fountains to military air bases, and believes the U.S. now understands him better too. U.S. diplomacy here, as in Laos and Thailand, has recently shown greater sophistication.

When Sihanouk visited Red China last August, he was similarly impressed with Communist drive, dedication and determination. While he rules, Cambodia must be regarded as uncertain; but the barometer is currently set fair.

Laos. Under new Premier Phoui Sananikone this small, primitive nation has made a significant leap forward. Badgered by a border quarrel with Communist North Viet Nam and by a sizable native band of Reds, Phoui is nevertheless courageous enough to stand up and be counted as an ally of the West. But the Laotian economy is staggering, and four years of U.S. aid served mostly to line politicians' pockets until Phoui took over. For the first time Laos deserves, as well as needs, substantial U.S. help.

Indonesia. President Sukarno may be an inept administrator but he has a keen ear and eye for the political currents that sweep Southeast Asia. His comment, "Parliamentary democracy doesn't work in this part of the world," has been justified by the events that have sent generally corrupt Parliaments packing from Pakistan to Thailand. But Sukarno's erratic guidance of his island nation of 85 million people has brought it dangerously near bankruptcy and disaster. A right-wing rebellion, sporadic, unmilitant, but persistent, threatens the nation's resources of oil and rubber. Indonesia is even more dangerously threatened by a Communist Party that is the largest in Asia outside of Red China. But the personal magnetism of Sukarno, the political leadership of Premier Djuanda, and the surprisingly competent and anti-Communist army under General Haris Nasution have so far kept the nation a full step ahead of anarchy.

Malaya. The only nation in Southeast Asia that still operates as a parliamentary democracy, Malaya is also one of the most solidly based. It has an able leader, the Moslem Premier Tengku Abdul Rahman, who was able to lift emergency restrictions in the state of Negri Sembilan last week, has now cleaned up 80% of the country as the eleven-year war against Communist guerrillas in the jungle sputters off into insignificance.

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