Looser Grip

The last dictator in South America sat in his ramshackle, century-old Asuncion palace, weighed his chances of survival and decided last week that they lay in loosening his iron grip. After five years, poker-playing Lieut. General Alfredo Stroessner Matiauda, 46, announced a turn toward democracy.

The antitotalitarianism that has swept over the Americas has stirred widespread grumbling in Paraguay. Heightening the discontent is the fact that political prisoners jampack police headquarters and overflow into two concentration camps. Torture has been common. Youth Leader Rodolfo Serafini, emerging from 67 days' imprisonment, showed newsmen welts crisscrossing his back.

The power elements that Stroessner had to size up in making his decision were the various factions of his Colorado Party and his army. The Colorados were divided in two. The minority Presidencialistas urged continuing dictatorship; the majority Civilistas, who include nearly all Congressmen and most of the younger wing of the party, proposed liberalizing.

The 12,000-man army, the regime's backbone, divided three ways. Unqualifiedly loyal to the dictator, whatever his course, were two units: the 1,500-man palace guard and the 900-man Cerro Cora Regiment in Asuncion. But nine miles from Asuncion sat the 2,000-man cavalry, fiercely opposed to any liberalizing. Siding with the cavalry was the 600-man navy, with two gunboats (one under repair), seven admirals. A third army group --the 1,500-man 5th Military Region headquartered in the storied Chaco area--wanted Stroessner to restore a measure of freedom. Supporting these liberals was the 400-man air force (five DC-38, one PBY Catalina, two vintage trainers).

Stroessner thought the power balance through, and on the day that Congress reconvened last week, he put on a civilian suit, rode in an open blue convertible escorted by plumed lancers down troop-lined streets to the Congress building, to make his yearly state-of-the-nation speech. There he announced his "aim of perfecting a durable, democratic regime." He said the government would introduce bills to lift the state of siege, proclaim a general political amnesty, lift restrictions on freedom of expression, adopt a new constitution.

Underground oppositionists scoffed. Said one of their leaders: "On the day we take over, we will do all those things Stroessner promises today. And we will do one more thing: punish the men who enslaved, tortured and starved the people of Paraguay for years."

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