HOW GOES THE RECESSION?

Here is how some of the top U.S. economists answered the recession question for TIME last week:

Walter Heller: The basic curve of the economy now is a saucer -- and very shallow. There is an upturn coming within the next three to six months.

Howard Ellis, University of Cali fornia: The depression -- and when you have 7% unemployed, it is a depression -- is serious enough to demand vigorous action. It may be with us for a year. I favor a tax cut immediately.

Roy Blough, Columbia University: Assuming that heavy unemployment does not initiate a downward spiral, I would expect business activity to start to rise soon. But I do not see signs of the strong demand needed to stimulate vigorous growth.

Kenneth Arrow, Stanford University: I would expect the economy to show some improvement by autumn or the end of the year. But there is a need for Government pump-priming -- unbalancing the budget -- until private investment overcomes its static condition.

Dexter Keezer, McGraw-Hill Economic Adviser: Economic recovery is in the making -- and pretty largely without regard to what the new Administration does or says about it.

Roland N. McKean, Rand Corp.: The recession looks as if it will grow somewhat more severe. Most of the things proposed by the Administration are not likely to have much immediate effect on an upturn. I would look for the country's unemployment to get somewhat worse in the next three to six months.

Clark Kerr, President, University of California: By summer, certainly, things ought to be on an upward trend. In a way, the recession looks worse than it is. Because the labor force is growing rapidly, unemployment pulls up faster than would be the case in a normal inventory adjustment.

Seymour Harris, Harvard University: The present recession is not as bad, so far, as the 1957-58 recession. The decline in income this time is roughly half as much as in the last one. But in terms of unemployment, the current recession is worse. I believe we'll see the beginnings of a recovery by the second quarter.

Milton Friedman, University of Chicago: The trough of the recession will come some time this summer. The rate of change in the money supply turned upward in the middle of last year. Generally there is a lag of about ten to twelve months between such a turn and the trough of a business cycle.

James Duesenberry, Harvard University: There should be a change of direction at least before June. The recovery will not be a terribly strong one.

Stanley Ruttenberg, A.F.L-C.I.O. Chief Economist: There is more reliance upon the hope of a turnaround than there ought to be. We believe that a quick tax cut, in the neighborhood of $4 billion or $5 billion, must be combined with all the other programs advanced.

John Langum, President, Chicago's Business Economics, Inc.: Adequate recovery is not yet assured. Real demand for durable goods is limited. It is not a question of people having enough money. Rather, for example, there is no urgent need for new houses to be built.

William McChesney Martin Jr., Federal Reserve Board Chairman: The inventory slump will have run its course in another couple of months. Steel is starting to look a little better. People have money, and I think they are going to buy autos. They don't want to buy a new car and park it in the snow. They want to wait until they can see robins.

Martin Gainsbrugh, Chief Economist, National Industrial Conference Board: The high rate of inventory liquidation in recent months coupled with the strength of end-product demand may well have marked the low point of the contraction.

Paul Samuelson, M.I.T.: This recession is turning out about as expected: bad but not very bad. Because of the need to please Congress, the Kennedy antirecession proposals are modest--perhaps more so than prudent economic policy would call for. Probably they will suffice to turn us up by midyear, but it will be important to take that second look in April and be prepared with stronger measures if unemployment has passed the critical 7 1/2% to 8% range.

Theodore A. Andersen, U.C.L.A.: It's by far the mildest recession since the turn of the century. We have a severe unemployment problem because of an extraordinary increase in the labor force and a shortage of trained and educated persons. But gross national product has declined less than 1%, total employment has increased by half a million, and nonproduction jobs are up 1,500,000 over a year ago. I expect production to start rising in March or April.

John Kenneth Galbraith, Harvard University: I do not believe anybody in this Administration makes the pretentious mistake of thinking he knows what is going to happen. One of the greatest pieces of economic wisdom is to know what you do not know.

This file is automatically generated by a robot program, so reader's discretion is required.