Who Stands How with Whom

Since it takes longer to poll than to pundit, not until this week did the pollsters begin weighing in on the meaning of the New Hampshire presidential primary.

While many analysts had seen Ambassador Henry Cabot Lodge's write-in victory as a deathly blow to Barry Goldwater's hopes for the G.O.P. nomination, the Gallup Poll indicated that the obits were premature. A post-New Hampshire nationwide poll of 1,840 Republican county chairmen--the hardcore politicians who either go, or help name most of the delegates, to national conventions--showed that Barry is still the favorite. The chairmen rated Richard Nixon as Goldwater's closest competitor. The tabulation:

Goldwater ....................................................................... .......878 (48%) Nixon ....................................................................... ..............383 (21%) Lodge ....................................................................... .............244 (13%) Scranton ....................................................................... ........164 (9%) Rockefeller ....................................................................... .....117 (6%) Others ....................................................................... ..............37 (2%) No preference ....................................................................... ..17 (1%)

Who would most of the county chairmen favor as their second choice? A survey that excluded Goidwater went like this:

Nixon ....................................................................... ............................762 Lodge ....................................................................... ...........................370 Scranton ....................................................................... .......................286 Rockefeller ....................................................................... ...................128 Others ....................................................................... ..........................137 No preference ....................................................................... ..............157

Pollster Samuel Lubell, who came closer than anyone else to predicting the sweeping Lodge victory in New Hampshire, was now ringing Oregon doorbells in anticipation of that state's May 15 presidential primary. His conclusion: if the primary were to be held today, "Ambassador Lodge would draw a heavier share of the vote than he did in New Hampshire." Lodge's Oregon support, Lubell said, cuts more deeply into Rockefeller's potential vote than into Goldwater's, is based partly on his general popularity, partly on the bandwagon psychology of New Hampshire. Asked for whom he would vote, a Portland machinist told Lubell: "That fellow who came in first in New Hampshire, what's his name?"

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