Rockets with Beards

Fidel Castro's anti-Yanqui rantings are so monotonously predictable that the U.S. often listens with only half an ear. Last week he struck a new and ominous note that commanded full attention. In a violent speech marking the third anniversary of the Bay of Pigs debacle, the Cuban beard demanded that the U.S. stop flying U-2 recon naissance planes over Cuba -- or else. "These physical aggressions against our territory are intolerable," cried Castro. "If what they want is to provoke a war, they are going to have it -- cost what it may. Let us prepare our surface-to-air missiles." In a diplomatic note delivered through the Swiss embassy in Havana, the Cubans formally warned the U.S. against "flagrant violations of na tional sovereignty." Another bellicose note to the U.N. said much the same thing.

Waiting for May Day. U.S. aerial reconnaissance has galled Castro ever since the October 1962 missile crisis. High-flying U-2 photo planes first discovered the presence of Soviet missiles in Cuba, watched their emplacement, and confirmed their hurried departure.

When Castro refused to permit the on-site inspections agreed to by President Kennedy and Khrushchev, the U.S. continued regular U-2 overflights to make certain that no new missiles were sneaked back in. Though Castro raged at the flights, there was nothing he could do about it so long as his Soviet part ners controlled the SAM II antiaircraft rockets capable of bringing down a U2.

Now U.S. intelligence reports that the Russians are going home -- and turning their equipment over to the Cubans. By May Day, according to U.S. estimates, only 1,500 to 2,000 Russians will be left in Cuba compared with some 30,000 troops and technicians in 1962. U.S. intelligence is convinced that the Russians have indeed removed all their nuclear ballistic missiles. But the Russians have left behind an impressive array of "defensive" hardware: battalions of tanks, hundreds of mobile nonnuclear FROGs (free-rocket-overground) with a 30-mile range, about 60 supersonic MIG-21 jet fighters and more than 100 antiaircraft SAM rockets. Ready to step in at the 25 SAM sites around the island are Cuban crews, who have had more than a year of training under Soviet instructors. There is some evidence that the Russians are pulling out their most sophisticated radar tracking systems, leaving the Cubans with second-rate equipment. Nevertheless, the SAMs remain highly dangerous weapons in itchy Cuban hands.

In Washington, State Department officials could only guess at the motives behind Castro's new militancy. The U-2 complaint may be part of a buildup for aggression charges that Castro threatens to bring against the U.S. at the U.N. As if to broaden his case, Castro again charged U.S. Marines at the Guantanamo naval base with "outrages and provocations," including throwing rocks across the border fence and urinating on a Cuban flagpole. But no one could rule out the possibility that Castro gunners might actually take a shot at a U.S. plane.

Keeping Them Flying. President Johnson stated categorically last week that the U-2 flights would continue. "It is essential that we maintain surveillance and know whether any missiles are being shipped into Cuba," he said. Any interference, he added, would be "a very serious action." In the 1962 crisis, one specific contingency plan was a lightning air strike to take out all 25 SAM installations simultaneously. The U.S. has kept a force of some 500 jet fighter bombers deployed at Southern bases within easy range of Cuba.

And so the dilemma for U.S. policymakers is that much as they want to see the Russians gone from Cuba, there is the lingering thought that Caribbean skies might be safer with at least a few Russians watching over the SAMs. The U.S. last week quietly sought such assurances. Moscow's public response was an article in Izvestia warning the U.S. against a "treacherous attack" and declaring that Cuba has "an inalienable right to take the necessary measures to put an end to the U-2 intrusions."

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